A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced by President Trump on April 7 amid escalating military tensions and a prior deadline, remains in effect as both sides prepare for high-stakes peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, starting this weekend. Vice President JD Vance and US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will negotiate Iran's 10-point proposal covering nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, proxy activities in Lebanon and Yemen, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic stays low. Recent strains include Iranian accusations of Israeli violations and Trump's renewed threats, heightening risks of breakdown despite de-escalation signals. Traders eye the talks' outcomes for potential extensions or permanent deals, with historical bilateral talks often stalling on verification and enforcement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$280,141,579 交易量
3月2日
否
3月6日
否
3月15日
否
3月31日
否
4月7日
是
4月10日
是
4月15日
是
4月30日
是
5月15日
是
6月30日
是
5月31日
是
12月31日
是
$280,141,579 交易量
3月2日
$3,493,959 交易量
否
3月6日
$0 交易量
否
3月15日
$0 交易量
否
3月31日
$44,375,995 交易量
否
4月7日
$173,696,184 交易量
是
4月10日
$866,658 交易量
是
4月15日
$24,621,548 交易量
是
4月30日
$17,726,878 交易量
是
5月15日
$419,846 交易量
是
6月30日
$5,033,124 交易量
是
5月31日
$7,793,716 交易量
是
12月31日
$2,113,671 交易量
是
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced by President Trump on April 7 amid escalating military tensions and a prior deadline, remains in effect as both sides prepare for high-stakes peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, starting this weekend. Vice President JD Vance and US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will negotiate Iran's 10-point proposal covering nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, proxy activities in Lebanon and Yemen, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic stays low. Recent strains include Iranian accusations of Israeli violations and Trump's renewed threats, heightening risks of breakdown despite de-escalation signals. Traders eye the talks' outcomes for potential extensions or permanent deals, with historical bilateral talks often stalling on verification and enforcement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
交易量
$280,141,579市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced by President Trump on April 7 amid escalating military tensions and a prior deadline, remains in effect as both sides prepare for high-stakes peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, starting this weekend. Vice President JD Vance and US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will negotiate Iran's 10-point proposal covering nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, proxy activities in Lebanon and Yemen, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic stays low. Recent strains include Iranian accusations of Israeli violations and Trump's renewed threats, heightening risks of breakdown despite de-escalation signals. Traders eye the talks' outcomes for potential extensions or permanent deals, with historical bilateral talks often stalling on verification and enforcement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$280,141,579市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, announced by President Trump on April 7 amid escalating military tensions and a prior deadline, remains in effect as both sides prepare for high-stakes peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, starting this weekend. Vice President JD Vance and US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will negotiate Iran's 10-point proposal covering nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, proxy activities in Lebanon and Yemen, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic stays low. Recent strains include Iranian accusations of Israeli violations and Trump's renewed threats, heightening risks of breakdown despite de-escalation signals. Traders eye the talks' outcomes for potential extensions or permanent deals, with historical bilateral talks often stalling on verification and enforcement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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