Amid escalating airstrikes in the six-week US-Iran war that began February 28, Iranian forces downed two US aircraft—including an F-15—over Iranian territory on April 3, triggering combat search-and-rescue missions by US special operations forces that physically entered sovereign land for operational recovery. US officials confirmed one crew member's rescue, with active searches ongoing for the second despite Iranian civilian bounties up to $60,000. This deliberate ground entry, qualifying under market rules, has driven trader consensus to 84% odds of further US forces entering by April 30, amid deployments topping 50,000 troops—including Marines and 82nd Airborne—and discussions of operations to secure the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's recent vows of intensified action heighten uncertainty ahead of potential diplomatic deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$116,141,670 交易量
2026-03-03
3月31日
<1%
4月30日
84%
12月31日
90%
$116,141,670 交易量
3月31日
$72,813,781 交易量
<1%
4月30日
$30,581,339 交易量
84%
12月31日
$10,674,399 交易量
90%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid escalating airstrikes in the six-week US-Iran war that began February 28, Iranian forces downed two US aircraft—including an F-15—over Iranian territory on April 3, triggering combat search-and-rescue missions by US special operations forces that physically entered sovereign land for operational recovery. US officials confirmed one crew member's rescue, with active searches ongoing for the second despite Iranian civilian bounties up to $60,000. This deliberate ground entry, qualifying under market rules, has driven trader consensus to 84% odds of further US forces entering by April 30, amid deployments topping 50,000 troops—including Marines and 82nd Airborne—and discussions of operations to secure the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's recent vows of intensified action heighten uncertainty ahead of potential diplomatic deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
交易量
$116,141,670市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid escalating airstrikes in the six-week US-Iran war that began February 28, Iranian forces downed two US aircraft—including an F-15—over Iranian territory on April 3, triggering combat search-and-rescue missions by US special operations forces that physically entered sovereign land for operational recovery. US officials confirmed one crew member's rescue, with active searches ongoing for the second despite Iranian civilian bounties up to $60,000. This deliberate ground entry, qualifying under market rules, has driven trader consensus to 84% odds of further US forces entering by April 30, amid deployments topping 50,000 troops—including Marines and 82nd Airborne—and discussions of operations to secure the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's recent vows of intensified action heighten uncertainty ahead of potential diplomatic deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$116,141,670市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Amid escalating airstrikes in the six-week US-Iran war that began February 28, Iranian forces downed two US aircraft—including an F-15—over Iranian territory on April 3, triggering combat search-and-rescue missions by US special operations forces that physically entered sovereign land for operational recovery. US officials confirmed one crew member's rescue, with active searches ongoing for the second despite Iranian civilian bounties up to $60,000. This deliberate ground entry, qualifying under market rules, has driven trader consensus to 84% odds of further US forces entering by April 30, amid deployments topping 50,000 troops—including Marines and 82nd Airborne—and discussions of operations to secure the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's recent vows of intensified action heighten uncertainty ahead of potential diplomatic deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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