No credible indications exist of US ground forces entering Iran, with trader consensus reflecting de-escalation signals from Washington amid Israel-Iran clashes. Israel's October 26 airstrikes targeted Iranian military sites in limited retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel, where US forces provided defensive support via missile intercepts but no offensive involvement. President Biden emphasized deterrence through sanctions and allied aid, while avoiding escalation to wider war. Iran's leadership vowed "proportional" response without red-line crossings, and no congressional authorization or troop mobilization has emerged. Upcoming diplomatic channels, proxy actions by Hezbollah or Houthis, or UN discussions could shift dynamics, but historical aversion to Middle East ground wars weighs heavily.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$36,279,439 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
3月31日
17%
4月30日
63%
12月31日
71%
$36,279,439 交易量
3月31日
$24,589,835 交易量
17%
4月30日
$4,784,330 交易量
63%
12月31日
$4,832,757 交易量
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.No credible indications exist of US ground forces entering Iran, with trader consensus reflecting de-escalation signals from Washington amid Israel-Iran clashes. Israel's October 26 airstrikes targeted Iranian military sites in limited retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel, where US forces provided defensive support via missile intercepts but no offensive involvement. President Biden emphasized deterrence through sanctions and allied aid, while avoiding escalation to wider war. Iran's leadership vowed "proportional" response without red-line crossings, and no congressional authorization or troop mobilization has emerged. Upcoming diplomatic channels, proxy actions by Hezbollah or Houthis, or UN discussions could shift dynamics, but historical aversion to Middle East ground wars weighs heavily.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
交易量
$36,279,439市场开放时间
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.No credible indications exist of US ground forces entering Iran, with trader consensus reflecting de-escalation signals from Washington amid Israel-Iran clashes. Israel's October 26 airstrikes targeted Iranian military sites in limited retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel, where US forces provided defensive support via missile intercepts but no offensive involvement. President Biden emphasized deterrence through sanctions and allied aid, while avoiding escalation to wider war. Iran's leadership vowed "proportional" response without red-line crossings, and no congressional authorization or troop mobilization has emerged. Upcoming diplomatic channels, proxy actions by Hezbollah or Houthis, or UN discussions could shift dynamics, but historical aversion to Middle East ground wars weighs heavily.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$36,279,439市场开放时间
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No credible indications exist of US ground forces entering Iran, with trader consensus reflecting de-escalation signals from Washington amid Israel-Iran clashes. Israel's October 26 airstrikes targeted Iranian military sites in limited retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel, where US forces provided defensive support via missile intercepts but no offensive involvement. President Biden emphasized deterrence through sanctions and allied aid, while avoiding escalation to wider war. Iran's leadership vowed "proportional" response without red-line crossings, and no congressional authorization or troop mobilization has emerged. Upcoming diplomatic channels, proxy actions by Hezbollah or Houthis, or UN discussions could shift dynamics, but historical aversion to Middle East ground wars weighs heavily.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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