Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. evacuation of its Jerusalem diplomatic mission by March 31, with 96.7% implied probability on "No," driven by the total lack of primary signals from the State Department—such as authorized departure orders or closure notices—despite persistent Middle East tensions including the Israel-Hamas war and Hezbollah clashes. The embassy maintains normal operations under a Level 2 travel advisory for Israel, with routine security enhancements but no escalation to full withdrawal protocols. This high confidence reflects traders' assessment of stable security posture absent verifiable threats. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden escalations, like direct Iranian strikes or multi-front conflict overwhelming defenses, potentially forcing staff reductions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$34,631 交易量
$34,631 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$34,631 交易量
$34,631 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
市场开放时间： Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
交易量
$34,631结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
交易量
$34,631结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. evacuation of its Jerusalem diplomatic mission by March 31, with 96.7% implied probability on "No," driven by the total lack of primary signals from the State Department—such as authorized departure orders or closure notices—despite persistent Middle East tensions including the Israel-Hamas war and Hezbollah clashes. The embassy maintains normal operations under a Level 2 travel advisory for Israel, with routine security enhancements but no escalation to full withdrawal protocols. This high confidence reflects traders' assessment of stable security posture absent verifiable threats. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden escalations, like direct Iranian strikes or multi-front conflict overwhelming defenses, potentially forcing staff reductions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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