Market icon

美国国会议员是否会在4月30日之前提交爱泼斯坦的文件?

Market icon

美国国会议员是否会在4月30日之前提交爱泼斯坦的文件?

10% chance
Polymarket
NEW

10% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify. An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward. Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.No sitting U.S. Congress member has emerged from the Jeffrey Epstein court documents with new evidence of wrongdoing sufficient to trigger resignation, expulsion, or removal by the April 30 deadline, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 87.5%. The bulk of documents were unsealed by federal courts in January 2024, revisiting known associations among past officials and celebrities but yielding no fresh indictments, DOJ probes, or ethics investigations targeting current lawmakers. With no additional file releases announced and the resolution window closing absent late-breaking scandals or special counsel actions, markets reflect the low baseline risk of such an outcome based on historical patterns where document dumps rarely force congressional exits without corroborating legal developments.

No sitting U.S. Congress member has emerged from the Jeffrey Epstein court documents with new evidence of wrongdoing sufficient to trigger resignation, expulsion, or removal by the April 30 deadline, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 87.5%. The bulk of documents were unsealed by federal courts in January 2024, revisiting known associations among past officials and celebrities but yielding no fresh indictments, DOJ probes, or ethics investigations targeting current lawmakers. With no additional file releases announced and the resolution window closing absent late-breaking scandals or special counsel actions, markets reflect the low baseline risk of such an outcome based on historical patterns where document dumps rarely force congressional exits without corroborating legal developments.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify. An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward. Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.No sitting U.S. Congress member has emerged from the Jeffrey Epstein court documents with new evidence of wrongdoing sufficient to trigger resignation, expulsion, or removal by the April 30 deadline, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 87.5%. The bulk of documents were unsealed by federal courts in January 2024, revisiting known associations among past officials and celebrities but yielding no fresh indictments, DOJ probes, or ethics investigations targeting current lawmakers. With no additional file releases announced and the resolution window closing absent late-breaking scandals or special counsel actions, markets reflect the low baseline risk of such an outcome based on historical patterns where document dumps rarely force congressional exits without corroborating legal developments.

No sitting U.S. Congress member has emerged from the Jeffrey Epstein court documents with new evidence of wrongdoing sufficient to trigger resignation, expulsion, or removal by the April 30 deadline, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 87.5%. The bulk of documents were unsealed by federal courts in January 2024, revisiting known associations among past officials and celebrities but yielding no fresh indictments, DOJ probes, or ethics investigations targeting current lawmakers. With no additional file releases announced and the resolution window closing absent late-breaking scandals or special counsel actions, markets reflect the low baseline risk of such an outcome based on historical patterns where document dumps rarely force congressional exits without corroborating legal developments.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"美国国会议员是否会在4月30日之前提交爱泼斯坦的文件?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"截至4月30日,美国国会议员因爱泼斯坦档案被罢免?",概率为 13%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 13¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 13%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"美国国会议员是否会在4月30日之前提交爱泼斯坦的文件?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Nov 20, 2025上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"美国国会议员是否会在4月30日之前提交爱泼斯坦的文件?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"美国国会议员是否会在4月30日之前提交爱泼斯坦的文件?"的当前领先者是"截至4月30日,美国国会议员因爱泼斯坦档案被罢免?",概率为 13%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 13%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"美国国会议员是否会在4月30日之前提交爱泼斯坦的文件?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。