Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability of a U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the FDIC's January 30 seizure of Chicago's Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the first failure of the year—stemming from impaired capital tied to troubled commercial real estate loans. Regional banks, holding nearly one-third of the $900 billion-plus in CRE debt maturing through 2026, face acute refinancing risks amid office sector delinquencies exceeding 11% and elevated unrealized losses topping $300 billion system-wide per recent FDIC data. Rising numbers on the FDIC's problem bank list signal ongoing stress, with Q2's $350 billion maturity wave and Federal Reserve CRE-focused stress tests as key near-term catalysts that could tip vulnerable institutions over the edge, though regulatory interventions remain a counterbalance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$12,810 交易量
$12,810 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$12,810 交易量
$12,810 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability of a U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the FDIC's January 30 seizure of Chicago's Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the first failure of the year—stemming from impaired capital tied to troubled commercial real estate loans. Regional banks, holding nearly one-third of the $900 billion-plus in CRE debt maturing through 2026, face acute refinancing risks amid office sector delinquencies exceeding 11% and elevated unrealized losses topping $300 billion system-wide per recent FDIC data. Rising numbers on the FDIC's problem bank list signal ongoing stress, with Q2's $350 billion maturity wave and Federal Reserve CRE-focused stress tests as key near-term catalysts that could tip vulnerable institutions over the edge, though regulatory interventions remain a counterbalance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
市场开放时间： Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
交易量
$12,810结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability of a U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the FDIC's January 30 seizure of Chicago's Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the first failure of the year—stemming from impaired capital tied to troubled commercial real estate loans. Regional banks, holding nearly one-third of the $900 billion-plus in CRE debt maturing through 2026, face acute refinancing risks amid office sector delinquencies exceeding 11% and elevated unrealized losses topping $300 billion system-wide per recent FDIC data. Rising numbers on the FDIC's problem bank list signal ongoing stress, with Q2's $350 billion maturity wave and Federal Reserve CRE-focused stress tests as key near-term catalysts that could tip vulnerable institutions over the edge, though regulatory interventions remain a counterbalance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
交易量
$12,810结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78% implied probability of a U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the FDIC's January 30 seizure of Chicago's Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the first failure of the year—stemming from impaired capital tied to troubled commercial real estate loans. Regional banks, holding nearly one-third of the $900 billion-plus in CRE debt maturing through 2026, face acute refinancing risks amid office sector delinquencies exceeding 11% and elevated unrealized losses topping $300 billion system-wide per recent FDIC data. Rising numbers on the FDIC's problem bank list signal ongoing stress, with Q2's $350 billion maturity wave and Federal Reserve CRE-focused stress tests as key near-term catalysts that could tip vulnerable institutions over the edge, though regulatory interventions remain a counterbalance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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