The heavily Democratic lean of Texas's 18th congressional district, reinforced by redistricting that consolidated urban Houston voters, positions the Democratic nominee as the clear frontrunner for the November 2026 general election. Recent University of Houston polling in the Democratic primary runoff shows Christian Menefee leading Al Green by double digits among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys that highlighted strong name recognition and favorable views for both candidates in this safe seat. With a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating exceeding D+29 and minimal Republican opposition expected, traders assign the Democratic Party an 80.6% implied probability of victory while pricing the Republican challenger at 25.4%. The primary winner faces no structural barriers in the general, where historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive cross-party dynamics have kept odds stable in recent weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
79%
共和党
23%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
$0 交易量
79%
共和党
$0 交易量
23%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of Texas's 18th congressional district, reinforced by redistricting that consolidated urban Houston voters, positions the Democratic nominee as the clear frontrunner for the November 2026 general election. Recent University of Houston polling in the Democratic primary runoff shows Christian Menefee leading Al Green by double digits among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys that highlighted strong name recognition and favorable views for both candidates in this safe seat. With a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating exceeding D+29 and minimal Republican opposition expected, traders assign the Democratic Party an 80.6% implied probability of victory while pricing the Republican challenger at 25.4%. The primary winner faces no structural barriers in the general, where historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive cross-party dynamics have kept odds stable in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of Texas's 18th congressional district, reinforced by redistricting that consolidated urban Houston voters, positions the Democratic nominee as the clear frontrunner for the November 2026 general election. Recent University of Houston polling in the Democratic primary runoff shows Christian Menefee leading Al Green by double digits among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys that highlighted strong name recognition and favorable views for both candidates in this safe seat. With a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating exceeding D+29 and minimal Republican opposition expected, traders assign the Democratic Party an 80.6% implied probability of victory while pricing the Republican challenger at 25.4%. The primary winner faces no structural barriers in the general, where historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive cross-party dynamics have kept odds stable in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic lean of Texas's 18th congressional district, reinforced by redistricting that consolidated urban Houston voters, positions the Democratic nominee as the clear frontrunner for the November 2026 general election. Recent University of Houston polling in the Democratic primary runoff shows Christian Menefee leading Al Green by double digits among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys that highlighted strong name recognition and favorable views for both candidates in this safe seat. With a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating exceeding D+29 and minimal Republican opposition expected, traders assign the Democratic Party an 80.6% implied probability of victory while pricing the Republican challenger at 25.4%. The primary winner faces no structural barriers in the general, where historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive cross-party dynamics have kept odds stable in recent weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题