Trader consensus reflects a 76.5% implied probability for "No" on a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, driven by the absence of any official declaration four months into the year despite prior signals. Late 2025 comments from AKP insiders hinted at late-2026 preparations tied to potential early elections, but no formal amendment proposal has reached the Grand National Assembly's Anayasa Commission or completed the three required readings for presidential referral to referendum, which demands 360 of 600 parliamentary votes. Recent developments, including the ruling alliance's January parliamentary seat gains from opposition defections and February remarks by the deputy speaker forecasting steps for President Erdoğan's re-election eligibility beyond 2028 term limits, have not materialized into action amid economic headwinds and opposition pushback. Upcoming legislative sessions could shift dynamics, but traders prioritize verifiable progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 76.5% implied probability for "No" on a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, driven by the absence of any official declaration four months into the year despite prior signals. Late 2025 comments from AKP insiders hinted at late-2026 preparations tied to potential early elections, but no formal amendment proposal has reached the Grand National Assembly's Anayasa Commission or completed the three required readings for presidential referral to referendum, which demands 360 of 600 parliamentary votes. Recent developments, including the ruling alliance's January parliamentary seat gains from opposition defections and February remarks by the deputy speaker forecasting steps for President Erdoğan's re-election eligibility beyond 2028 term limits, have not materialized into action amid economic headwinds and opposition pushback. Upcoming legislative sessions could shift dynamics, but traders prioritize verifiable progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$241结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 76.5% implied probability for "No" on a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, driven by the absence of any official declaration four months into the year despite prior signals. Late 2025 comments from AKP insiders hinted at late-2026 preparations tied to potential early elections, but no formal amendment proposal has reached the Grand National Assembly's Anayasa Commission or completed the three required readings for presidential referral to referendum, which demands 360 of 600 parliamentary votes. Recent developments, including the ruling alliance's January parliamentary seat gains from opposition defections and February remarks by the deputy speaker forecasting steps for President Erdoğan's re-election eligibility beyond 2028 term limits, have not materialized into action amid economic headwinds and opposition pushback. Upcoming legislative sessions could shift dynamics, but traders prioritize verifiable progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$241结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 76.5% implied probability for "No" on a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, driven by the absence of any official declaration four months into the year despite prior signals. Late 2025 comments from AKP insiders hinted at late-2026 preparations tied to potential early elections, but no formal amendment proposal has reached the Grand National Assembly's Anayasa Commission or completed the three required readings for presidential referral to referendum, which demands 360 of 600 parliamentary votes. Recent developments, including the ruling alliance's January parliamentary seat gains from opposition defections and February remarks by the deputy speaker forecasting steps for President Erdoğan's re-election eligibility beyond 2028 term limits, have not materialized into action amid economic headwinds and opposition pushback. Upcoming legislative sessions could shift dynamics, but traders prioritize verifiable progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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