Trader consensus gives Tatiana Auguste a 59% implied probability to win the Terrebonne by-election in Quebec's National Assembly, driven by recent polls showing her Parti Québécois candidacy surging amid voter fatigue with the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ). A Léger poll released last week pegged PQ support at 54% versus CAQ's 41% for Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, fueled by criticisms of CAQ handling of healthcare wait times and immigration policy, shifting former Bloc-leaning voters. Auguste's local profile as a community advocate bolsters her ground game in this suburban Montreal riding, where PQ held sway pre-resignation. The November 25 vote looms with advance polling underway, but low turnout risks favoring the better-organized PQ machine, though a CAQ rebound remains possible on economic messaging.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Terrebone By-Election Winner
Terrebone By-Election Winner
塔蒂安娜·奥古斯特 59%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 41%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$30,507 交易量
$30,507 交易量
Apr 13, 2026
塔蒂安娜·奥古斯特
59%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
41%
Maxime Beaudoin
<1%
Maria Cantore
<1%
Adrienne Charles
<1%
Benjamin Rankin
<1%
塔蒂安娜·奥古斯特 59%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 41%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$30,507 交易量
$30,507 交易量
Apr 13, 2026
塔蒂安娜·奥古斯特
$9,875 交易量
59%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
$6,258 交易量
41%
Maxime Beaudoin
$3,495 交易量
<1%
Maria Cantore
$3,664 交易量
<1%
Adrienne Charles
$3,457 交易量
<1%
Benjamin Rankin
$3,758 交易量
<1%
A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
交易量
$30,507结束日期
Apr 13, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
交易量
$30,507结束日期
Apr 13, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus gives Tatiana Auguste a 59% implied probability to win the Terrebonne by-election in Quebec's National Assembly, driven by recent polls showing her Parti Québécois candidacy surging amid voter fatigue with the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ). A Léger poll released last week pegged PQ support at 54% versus CAQ's 41% for Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, fueled by criticisms of CAQ handling of healthcare wait times and immigration policy, shifting former Bloc-leaning voters. Auguste's local profile as a community advocate bolsters her ground game in this suburban Montreal riding, where PQ held sway pre-resignation. The November 25 vote looms with advance polling underway, but low turnout risks favoring the better-organized PQ machine, though a CAQ rebound remains possible on economic messaging.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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