Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, driven by heavy trading volume exceeding $7 million in the past day amid his high-profile HHS secretary role and the Make America Healthy Again movement's appeal to anti-establishment GOP voters skeptical of traditional insiders. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 36.5% following his CPAC straw poll win at 53% last week, bolstered by incumbency but tempered by reports of Trump advisors' frustration over his Tucker Carlson ties. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21.6% reflects recent donor preferences favoring him over Vance in private soundings and his rising poll shares, like 35% at CPAC, signaling an early three-way contest ahead of primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于J.D. Vance 36.5%
分组项标题：马科·鲁比奥 21.6%
塔克·卡尔森 4.8%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯 2.7%
$502,477,631 交易量
$502,477,631 交易量
J.D. Vance
37%
分组项标题：马科·鲁比奥
22%
塔克·卡尔森
5%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
3%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
格伦·扬金
2%
唐纳德·特朗普 Jr.
2%
托马斯·马西
2%
Rand Paul
1%
伊万卡·特朗普
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
塔尔西·加巴德尔
1%
格雷格·艾博特
1%
泰德·克鲁茨
1%
分组项标题：埃隆·马斯克
1%
玛乔里·泰勒·格林
1%
分组项标题：妮基·黑利
1%
罗伯特·F·肯尼迪二世
1%
分组项标题：马特·盖茨
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
莎拉·哈卡比·桑德斯
1%
布赖恩·肯普
1%
分组项标题：汤姆·布雷迪
1%
金·卡戴珊
1%
皮特·赫格塞斯
1%
分组项标题：Elise Stefanik
1%
乔什·霍利
1%
凯蒂·布里特
1%
约翰·桑恩
1%
克里斯蒂·诺姆
1%
乔·肯特
1%
斯蒂夫·班农
1%
拜伦·唐纳斯
1%
埃里卡·柯克
1%
迈克·彭斯
1%
J.D. Vance 36.5%
分组项标题：马科·鲁比奥 21.6%
塔克·卡尔森 4.8%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯 2.7%
$502,477,631 交易量
$502,477,631 交易量
J.D. Vance
37%
分组项标题：马科·鲁比奥
22%
塔克·卡尔森
5%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
3%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
格伦·扬金
2%
唐纳德·特朗普 Jr.
2%
托马斯·马西
2%
Rand Paul
1%
伊万卡·特朗普
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
塔尔西·加巴德尔
1%
格雷格·艾博特
1%
泰德·克鲁茨
1%
分组项标题：埃隆·马斯克
1%
玛乔里·泰勒·格林
1%
分组项标题：妮基·黑利
1%
罗伯特·F·肯尼迪二世
1%
分组项标题：马特·盖茨
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
莎拉·哈卡比·桑德斯
1%
布赖恩·肯普
1%
分组项标题：汤姆·布雷迪
1%
金·卡戴珊
1%
皮特·赫格塞斯
1%
分组项标题：Elise Stefanik
1%
乔什·霍利
1%
凯蒂·布里特
1%
约翰·桑恩
1%
克里斯蒂·诺姆
1%
乔·肯特
1%
斯蒂夫·班农
1%
拜伦·唐纳斯
1%
埃里卡·柯克
1%
迈克·彭斯
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, driven by heavy trading volume exceeding $7 million in the past day amid his high-profile HHS secretary role and the Make America Healthy Again movement's appeal to anti-establishment GOP voters skeptical of traditional insiders. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 36.5% following his CPAC straw poll win at 53% last week, bolstered by incumbency but tempered by reports of Trump advisors' frustration over his Tucker Carlson ties. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21.6% reflects recent donor preferences favoring him over Vance in private soundings and his rising poll shares, like 35% at CPAC, signaling an early three-way contest ahead of primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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