JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.8% implied probability, closely followed by Gavin Newsom at 16.8% and Marco Rubio at 11.1%, driven by post-2024 election dynamics where Donald Trump's term limits clear the Republican path for his vice president-elect Vance, whose campaign visibility and base alignment boosted his profile. Newsom benefits from Democratic searches for a Harris successor, highlighted by his recent national media pushback against Trump policies and California governance record. The tight cluster underscores the distant timeline, with 2026 midterms, economic trends, scandals, or endorsements likely to create separation in primary paths and Electoral College battlegrounds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于JD Vance 17.7%
加文·纽瑟姆 16.8%
马尔科·鲁比奥 11.1%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 4.7%
$455,157,647 交易量
$455,157,647 交易量

JD Vance
18%

加文·纽瑟姆
17%

马尔科·鲁比奥
11%

亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
5%

乔恩·奥索夫
3%

卡马拉·哈里斯
3%

分组项标题:塔克·卡尔森
3%

乔什·沙皮罗
2%

唐纳德·特朗普
2%

彼得·布蒂吉格
2%

分组项标题:JB Pritzker
2%

罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%

道恩·“巨石”强森
2%

安迪·贝塞尔
1%

分组项目标题:伊万卡·特朗普
1%

分组项标题:杰米·戴蒙
1%

詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%

米歇尔·奥巴马
1%

埃隆·马斯克
1%

分组项标题:格雷琴·惠特默
1%

格雷格·阿博特
1%

托马斯·马西
1%

分组项标题:韦斯·摩尔
1%

图尔西·加巴德
1%

唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%

尼基·黑利
1%

罗·卡纳
1%

分组条目标题:蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%

格伦·杨金
1%

斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%

维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%

分组项标题:Zohran Mamdani
1%

埃里克·特朗普
1%

皮特·海格塞斯
1%

金·卡戴珊
1%

勒布朗·詹姆斯
<1%
JD Vance 17.7%
加文·纽瑟姆 16.8%
马尔科·鲁比奥 11.1%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 4.7%
$455,157,647 交易量
$455,157,647 交易量

JD Vance
18%

加文·纽瑟姆
17%

马尔科·鲁比奥
11%

亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
5%

乔恩·奥索夫
3%

卡马拉·哈里斯
3%

分组项标题:塔克·卡尔森
3%

乔什·沙皮罗
2%

唐纳德·特朗普
2%

彼得·布蒂吉格
2%

分组项标题:JB Pritzker
2%

罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%

道恩·“巨石”强森
2%

安迪·贝塞尔
1%

分组项目标题:伊万卡·特朗普
1%

分组项标题:杰米·戴蒙
1%

詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%

米歇尔·奥巴马
1%

埃隆·马斯克
1%

分组项标题:格雷琴·惠特默
1%

格雷格·阿博特
1%

托马斯·马西
1%

分组项标题:韦斯·摩尔
1%

图尔西·加巴德
1%

唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%

尼基·黑利
1%

罗·卡纳
1%

分组条目标题:蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%

格伦·杨金
1%

斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%

维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%

分组项标题:Zohran Mamdani
1%

埃里克·特朗普
1%

皮特·海格塞斯
1%

金·卡戴珊
1%

勒布朗·詹姆斯
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
市场开放时间: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.8% implied probability, closely followed by Gavin Newsom at 16.8% and Marco Rubio at 11.1%, driven by post-2024 election dynamics where Donald Trump's term limits clear the Republican path for his vice president-elect Vance, whose campaign visibility and base alignment boosted his profile. Newsom benefits from Democratic searches for a Harris successor, highlighted by his recent national media pushback against Trump policies and California governance record. The tight cluster underscores the distant timeline, with 2026 midterms, economic trends, scandals, or endorsements likely to create separation in primary paths and Electoral College battlegrounds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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