JD Vance leads trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 18% implied probability, bolstered by his selection as Vice President-elect alongside President-elect Donald Trump, positioning him as the Republican frontrunner and potential heir apparent amid strong party loyalty. Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17%, gaining traction as a prominent Democratic governor criticizing the party's 2024 performance and eyeing a national bid in a post-Harris landscape lacking a clear successor. Marco Rubio's 11% reflects his Senate seniority and Trump cabinet considerations, keeping the GOP field competitive. This tight race persists due to the early stage—primaries over three years away—with 2026 midterms, Trump's administration track record, scandals, or economic shifts poised to create separation by reshaping paths to nomination and Electoral College viability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于JD Vance 17.9%
加文·纽瑟姆 16.8%
马尔科·鲁比奥 11.2%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 4.7%
$454,568,144 交易量
$454,568,144 交易量

JD Vance
18%

加文·纽瑟姆
17%

马尔科·鲁比奥
11%

亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
5%

乔恩·奥索夫
3%

卡马拉·哈里斯
3%

分组项标题:塔克·卡尔森
2%

乔什·沙皮罗
2%

唐纳德·特朗普
2%

彼得·布蒂吉格
2%

分组项标题:JB Pritzker
2%

罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%

道恩·“巨石”强森
2%

安迪·贝塞尔
1%

分组项目标题:伊万卡·特朗普
1%

詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%

分组项标题:杰米·戴蒙
1%

米歇尔·奥巴马
1%

埃隆·马斯克
1%

分组项标题:格雷琴·惠特默
1%

格雷格·阿博特
1%

托马斯·马西
1%

分组项标题:韦斯·摩尔
1%

唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%

尼基·黑利
1%

罗·卡纳
1%

图尔西·加巴德
1%

分组条目标题:蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%

格伦·杨金
1%

斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%

维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%

分组项标题:Zohran Mamdani
1%

埃里克·特朗普
1%

勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%

皮特·海格塞斯
1%

金·卡戴珊
1%
JD Vance 17.9%
加文·纽瑟姆 16.8%
马尔科·鲁比奥 11.2%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 4.7%
$454,568,144 交易量
$454,568,144 交易量

JD Vance
18%

加文·纽瑟姆
17%

马尔科·鲁比奥
11%

亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
5%

乔恩·奥索夫
3%

卡马拉·哈里斯
3%

分组项标题:塔克·卡尔森
2%

乔什·沙皮罗
2%

唐纳德·特朗普
2%

彼得·布蒂吉格
2%

分组项标题:JB Pritzker
2%

罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%

道恩·“巨石”强森
2%

安迪·贝塞尔
1%

分组项目标题:伊万卡·特朗普
1%

詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%

分组项标题:杰米·戴蒙
1%

米歇尔·奥巴马
1%

埃隆·马斯克
1%

分组项标题:格雷琴·惠特默
1%

格雷格·阿博特
1%

托马斯·马西
1%

分组项标题:韦斯·摩尔
1%

唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%

尼基·黑利
1%

罗·卡纳
1%

图尔西·加巴德
1%

分组条目标题:蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%

格伦·杨金
1%

斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%

维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%

分组项标题:Zohran Mamdani
1%

埃里克·特朗普
1%

勒布朗·詹姆斯
1%

皮特·海格塞斯
1%

金·卡戴珊
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
市场开放时间: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance leads trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 18% implied probability, bolstered by his selection as Vice President-elect alongside President-elect Donald Trump, positioning him as the Republican frontrunner and potential heir apparent amid strong party loyalty. Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17%, gaining traction as a prominent Democratic governor criticizing the party's 2024 performance and eyeing a national bid in a post-Harris landscape lacking a clear successor. Marco Rubio's 11% reflects his Senate seniority and Trump cabinet considerations, keeping the GOP field competitive. This tight race persists due to the early stage—primaries over three years away—with 2026 midterms, Trump's administration track record, scandals, or economic shifts poised to create separation by reshaping paths to nomination and Electoral College viability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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