Trader consensus on Polymarket gives comedian Carlos Álvarez a slight edge at 28% implied probability for Peru's presidential election winner, driven by his surge to 19% in the latest Ipsos poll (April 1-2) among valid votes in a fragmented first-round race featuring 34 candidates set for April 12. Keiko Fujimori (23%) and Rafael López Aliaga (20%) trail closely, with Roberto Sánchez Palomino at 16%, amid high undecided rates (17-23%) and blank votes reflecting voter fatigue from chronic instability and rising crime. Recent polls show volatile shifts, including Álvarez's outsider momentum outside Lima, while Fujimori holds right-wing support; late campaign events or turnout in battleground regions could tip contenders toward a runoff on June 7 if no one exceeds 50%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯 28.2%
凯科·藤森 23%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 20%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺 15.9%
$6,165,126 交易量
$6,165,126 交易量
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯
28%
凯科·藤森
23%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加
20%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺
16%
里卡多·贝尔蒙特
5%
豪尔赫·涅托
4%
阿方索·洛佩斯·查乌
3%
卡洛斯·埃斯帕
1%
玛丽索尔·佩雷斯·特略
1%
沃尔夫冈·格罗佐
<1%
费尔南多·奥利韦拉
<1%
塞萨尔·阿库尼亚
<1%
梅西亚斯·格瓦拉
<1%
约尼·莱斯卡诺
<1%
乔治·福赛思
<1%
弗拉基米尔·塞龙
<1%
罗伯托·奇亚布拉
<1%
恩里克·巴尔德拉马
<1%
马里奥·比斯卡拉
<1%
何塞·卢纳
<1%
何塞·威廉斯
<1%
菲奥雷拉·莫利内利
<1%
拉斐尔·贝劳恩德·略萨
<1%
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯 28.2%
凯科·藤森 23%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 20%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺 15.9%
$6,165,126 交易量
$6,165,126 交易量
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯
28%
凯科·藤森
23%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加
20%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺
16%
里卡多·贝尔蒙特
5%
豪尔赫·涅托
4%
阿方索·洛佩斯·查乌
3%
卡洛斯·埃斯帕
1%
玛丽索尔·佩雷斯·特略
1%
沃尔夫冈·格罗佐
<1%
费尔南多·奥利韦拉
<1%
塞萨尔·阿库尼亚
<1%
梅西亚斯·格瓦拉
<1%
约尼·莱斯卡诺
<1%
乔治·福赛思
<1%
弗拉基米尔·塞龙
<1%
罗伯托·奇亚布拉
<1%
恩里克·巴尔德拉马
<1%
马里奥·比斯卡拉
<1%
何塞·卢纳
<1%
何塞·威廉斯
<1%
菲奥雷拉·莫利内利
<1%
拉斐尔·贝劳恩德·略萨
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives comedian Carlos Álvarez a slight edge at 28% implied probability for Peru's presidential election winner, driven by his surge to 19% in the latest Ipsos poll (April 1-2) among valid votes in a fragmented first-round race featuring 34 candidates set for April 12. Keiko Fujimori (23%) and Rafael López Aliaga (20%) trail closely, with Roberto Sánchez Palomino at 16%, amid high undecided rates (17-23%) and blank votes reflecting voter fatigue from chronic instability and rising crime. Recent polls show volatile shifts, including Álvarez's outsider momentum outside Lima, while Fujimori holds right-wing support; late campaign events or turnout in battleground regions could tip contenders toward a runoff on June 7 if no one exceeds 50%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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