With Peru's April 12 first-round presidential vote just days away, recent JNE-organized debates have driven a surge in support for comedian Carlos Álvarez of País para Todos, whose direct style and humor boosted him from under 10% to 12-18% in latest Ipsos polls, appealing to disillusioned voters amid chronic instability and rising crime. This momentum underpins trader consensus pricing him at 29.8% implied probability to emerge winner via runoff, ahead of Keiko Fujimori (22.5%), Rafael López Aliaga (18%), and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (16.4%). High undecided rates (17-30%) and 35 candidates fragment the right-leaning field; late endorsements, regional turnout in Lima or the south, or scandals could consolidate votes and create separation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯 29.8%
凯科·藤森 23%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 18%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺 16.4%
$6,081,789 交易量
$6,081,789 交易量
2026-04-12
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯
30%
凯科·藤森
23%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加
18%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺
16%
里卡多·贝尔蒙特
5%
阿方索·洛佩斯·查乌
3%
豪尔赫·涅托
3%
卡洛斯·埃斯帕
1%
玛丽索尔·佩雷斯·特略
<1%
塞萨尔·阿库尼亚
<1%
费尔南多·奥利韦拉
<1%
约尼·莱斯卡诺
<1%
沃尔夫冈·格罗佐
<1%
梅西亚斯·格瓦拉
<1%
乔治·福赛思
<1%
弗拉基米尔·塞龙
<1%
罗伯托·奇亚布拉
<1%
恩里克·巴尔德拉马
<1%
马里奥·比斯卡拉
<1%
何塞·卢纳
<1%
何塞·威廉斯
<1%
菲奥雷拉·莫利内利
<1%
拉斐尔·贝劳恩德·略萨
<1%
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯 29.8%
凯科·藤森 23%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 18%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺 16.4%
$6,081,789 交易量
$6,081,789 交易量
2026-04-12
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯
$243,663 交易量
30%
凯科·藤森
$329,183 交易量
23%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加
$838,741 交易量
18%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺
$440,533 交易量
16%
里卡多·贝尔蒙特
$341,739 交易量
5%
阿方索·洛佩斯·查乌
$354,273 交易量
3%
豪尔赫·涅托
$815,748 交易量
3%
卡洛斯·埃斯帕
$196,376 交易量
1%
玛丽索尔·佩雷斯·特略
$269,643 交易量
<1%
塞萨尔·阿库尼亚
$135,940 交易量
<1%
费尔南多·奥利韦拉
$130,905 交易量
<1%
约尼·莱斯卡诺
$225,063 交易量
<1%
沃尔夫冈·格罗佐
$407,510 交易量
<1%
梅西亚斯·格瓦拉
$157,531 交易量
<1%
乔治·福赛思
$155,657 交易量
<1%
弗拉基米尔·塞龙
$154,346 交易量
<1%
罗伯托·奇亚布拉
$88,500 交易量
<1%
恩里克·巴尔德拉马
$178,878 交易量
<1%
马里奥·比斯卡拉
$155,734 交易量
<1%
何塞·卢纳
$120,188 交易量
<1%
何塞·威廉斯
$82,867 交易量
<1%
菲奥雷拉·莫利内利
$117,012 交易量
<1%
拉斐尔·贝劳恩德·略萨
$142,135 交易量
<1%
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) With Peru's April 12 first-round presidential vote just days away, recent JNE-organized debates have driven a surge in support for comedian Carlos Álvarez of País para Todos, whose direct style and humor boosted him from under 10% to 12-18% in latest Ipsos polls, appealing to disillusioned voters amid chronic instability and rising crime. This momentum underpins trader consensus pricing him at 29.8% implied probability to emerge winner via runoff, ahead of Keiko Fujimori (22.5%), Rafael López Aliaga (18%), and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (16.4%). High undecided rates (17-30%) and 35 candidates fragment the right-leaning field; late endorsements, regional turnout in Lima or the south, or scandals could consolidate votes and create separation.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
交易量
$6,081,789结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) With Peru's April 12 first-round presidential vote just days away, recent JNE-organized debates have driven a surge in support for comedian Carlos Álvarez of País para Todos, whose direct style and humor boosted him from under 10% to 12-18% in latest Ipsos polls, appealing to disillusioned voters amid chronic instability and rising crime. This momentum underpins trader consensus pricing him at 29.8% implied probability to emerge winner via runoff, ahead of Keiko Fujimori (22.5%), Rafael López Aliaga (18%), and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (16.4%). High undecided rates (17-30%) and 35 candidates fragment the right-leaning field; late endorsements, regional turnout in Lima or the south, or scandals could consolidate votes and create separation.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
交易量
$6,081,789结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With Peru's April 12 first-round presidential vote just days away, recent JNE-organized debates have driven a surge in support for comedian Carlos Álvarez of País para Todos, whose direct style and humor boosted him from under 10% to 12-18% in latest Ipsos polls, appealing to disillusioned voters amid chronic instability and rising crime. This momentum underpins trader consensus pricing him at 29.8% implied probability to emerge winner via runoff, ahead of Keiko Fujimori (22.5%), Rafael López Aliaga (18%), and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (16.4%). High undecided rates (17-30%) and 35 candidates fragment the right-leaning field; late endorsements, regional turnout in Lima or the south, or scandals could consolidate votes and create separation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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