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下一次美国与委内瑞拉的军事交锋在……?

Market icon

下一次美国与委内瑞拉的军事交锋在……?

2025年无军事冲突 100.0%

11月24日 <1%

11月25日 <1%

分组项标题:11月26日 <1%

Polymarket

$6,115,302 交易量

2025年无军事冲突 100.0%

11月24日 <1%

11月25日 <1%

分组项标题:11月26日 <1%

Polymarket

$6,115,302 交易量

11月24日

$16,521 交易量

11月25日

$12,305 交易量

分组项标题:11月26日

$50,403 交易量

11月27日

$26,626 交易量

11月28日

$110,465 交易量

11月29日

$69,037 交易量

11月30日

$38,868 交易量

12月1日

$152,688 交易量

12月2日

$143,803 交易量

12月3日

$156,897 交易量

12月4日

$114,214 交易量

12月5日

$80,954 交易量

12月6日

$247,933 交易量

12月7日

$252,347 交易量

12月8日

$144,644 交易量

12月9日

$100,331 交易量

12月10日

$139,654 交易量

12月11日

$151,302 交易量

12月12日

$169,819 交易量

12月13日

$156,535 交易量

12月14日

$173,132 交易量

12月15日

$142,702 交易量

12月16日

$246,708 交易量

12月17日

$259,801 交易量

12月18日

$146,055 交易量

12月19日

$182,914 交易量

12月20日

$147,100 交易量

12月21日

$120,640 交易量

12月22日

$169,657 交易量

12月23日

$119,274 交易量

分组项标题:12月24日

$184,201 交易量

12月25日

$230,223 交易量

12月26日

$204,551 交易量

12月27日

$189,590 交易量

12月28日

$150,850 交易量

12月29日

$193,759 交易量

12月30日

$198,231 交易量

12月31日

$203,861 交易量

2025年无军事冲突

$516,706 交易量

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) of the next military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela.

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,115,302
结束日期
Dec 31, 2025
市场开放时间
Nov 24, 2025, 5:17 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) of the next military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela. A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify). Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提议结果: 否

无争议

最终结果: 否

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"下一次美国与委内瑞拉的军事交锋在……?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 39 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2025年无军事冲突" at 100%, followed by "11月24日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "下一次美国与委内瑞拉的军事交锋在……?" has generated $6.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "下一次美国与委内瑞拉的军事交锋在……?," browse the 39 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "下一次美国与委内瑞拉的军事交锋在……?" is "2025年无军事冲突" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "11月24日" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "下一次美国与委内瑞拉的军事交锋在……?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.