U.S. traders' 83% implied probability against recognizing María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31 reflects the Trump administration's recent pivot to backing Delcy Rodríguez as interim president following Nicolás Maduro's ouster and capture in early 2026. On March 5, the U.S. and Venezuela agreed to restore diplomatic relations, with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum visiting Caracas to coordinate on oil and stability, signaling normalization under the interim regime rather than opposition figures. Machado herself described the recognition of Rodríguez as accelerating transition to elections for legitimate authorities, diminishing prospects for her formal elevation amid U.S. focus on practical governance and prisoner releases. No announcements indicate a shift, with coalition pressures favoring the current path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
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Dec 31, 2026
是
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. traders' 83% implied probability against recognizing María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31 reflects the Trump administration's recent pivot to backing Delcy Rodríguez as interim president following Nicolás Maduro's ouster and capture in early 2026. On March 5, the U.S. and Venezuela agreed to restore diplomatic relations, with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum visiting Caracas to coordinate on oil and stability, signaling normalization under the interim regime rather than opposition figures. Machado herself described the recognition of Rodríguez as accelerating transition to elections for legitimate authorities, diminishing prospects for her formal elevation amid U.S. focus on practical governance and prisoner releases. No announcements indicate a shift, with coalition pressures favoring the current path.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
交易量
$2,204结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. traders' 83% implied probability against recognizing María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31 reflects the Trump administration's recent pivot to backing Delcy Rodríguez as interim president following Nicolás Maduro's ouster and capture in early 2026. On March 5, the U.S. and Venezuela agreed to restore diplomatic relations, with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum visiting Caracas to coordinate on oil and stability, signaling normalization under the interim regime rather than opposition figures. Machado herself described the recognition of Rodríguez as accelerating transition to elections for legitimate authorities, diminishing prospects for her formal elevation amid U.S. focus on practical governance and prisoner releases. No announcements indicate a shift, with coalition pressures favoring the current path.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$2,204结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. traders' 83% implied probability against recognizing María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31 reflects the Trump administration's recent pivot to backing Delcy Rodríguez as interim president following Nicolás Maduro's ouster and capture in early 2026. On March 5, the U.S. and Venezuela agreed to restore diplomatic relations, with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum visiting Caracas to coordinate on oil and stability, signaling normalization under the interim regime rather than opposition figures. Machado herself described the recognition of Rodríguez as accelerating transition to elections for legitimate authorities, diminishing prospects for her formal elevation amid U.S. focus on practical governance and prisoner releases. No announcements indicate a shift, with coalition pressures favoring the current path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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