President Trump's recent public dismissal of Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado's presidential viability has solidified trader consensus at 82.5% against an endorsement for the 2026 election. In January 2026 interviews, Trump stated she "doesn't have the support or respect" domestically and would face challenges leading, despite a prior meeting and her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. Following Nicolás Maduro's U.S.-backed capture and strikes on military targets, the administration has prioritized engaging former regime figures like interim leader Delcy Rodríguez for a stable transition focused on oil sector access and security, sidelining Machado amid White House frustrations over her maximalist stance. Her planned return to Venezuela this month offers little indication of shifting U.S. foreign policy preferences.