Israeli airstrikes on October 26 targeted around 20 Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel, marking the most recent direct military action against Iran; the operation concluded swiftly with Iran reporting limited damage and no immediate counterstrikes. This calibrated response avoided nuclear or oil facilities, aligning with U.S. calls for de-escalation amid broader regional tensions involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea. No ongoing operations are confirmed, but potential Iranian reprisals via proxies or diplomatic shifts could arise, particularly around the U.S. presidential election on November 5 or ceasefire talks in Gaza. Traders monitor official statements from Israel, Iran, and Washington for escalation signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$144,620 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
3%
March 29
5%
March 30
8%
March 31
11%
4月15日
32%
4月30日
54%
5月31日
53%
6月30日
77%
$144,620 交易量
March 26
$19,977 交易量
<1%
March 27
$7,565 交易量
<1%
March 28
$13,732 交易量
3%
March 29
$19,495 交易量
5%
March 30
$15,355 交易量
8%
March 31
$67,877 交易量
11%
4月15日
$486 交易量
32%
4月30日
$0 交易量
54%
5月31日
$148 交易量
53%
6月30日
$0 交易量
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli airstrikes on October 26 targeted around 20 Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel, marking the most recent direct military action against Iran; the operation concluded swiftly with Iran reporting limited damage and no immediate counterstrikes. This calibrated response avoided nuclear or oil facilities, aligning with U.S. calls for de-escalation amid broader regional tensions involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea. No ongoing operations are confirmed, but potential Iranian reprisals via proxies or diplomatic shifts could arise, particularly around the U.S. presidential election on November 5 or ceasefire talks in Gaza. Traders monitor official statements from Israel, Iran, and Washington for escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
交易量
$144,620结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli airstrikes on October 26 targeted around 20 Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel, marking the most recent direct military action against Iran; the operation concluded swiftly with Iran reporting limited damage and no immediate counterstrikes. This calibrated response avoided nuclear or oil facilities, aligning with U.S. calls for de-escalation amid broader regional tensions involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea. No ongoing operations are confirmed, but potential Iranian reprisals via proxies or diplomatic shifts could arise, particularly around the U.S. presidential election on November 5 or ceasefire talks in Gaza. Traders monitor official statements from Israel, Iran, and Washington for escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$144,620结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli airstrikes on October 26 targeted around 20 Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel, marking the most recent direct military action against Iran; the operation concluded swiftly with Iran reporting limited damage and no immediate counterstrikes. This calibrated response avoided nuclear or oil facilities, aligning with U.S. calls for de-escalation amid broader regional tensions involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea. No ongoing operations are confirmed, but potential Iranian reprisals via proxies or diplomatic shifts could arise, particularly around the U.S. presidential election on November 5 or ceasefire talks in Gaza. Traders monitor official statements from Israel, Iran, and Washington for escalation signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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