Former Maine Governor Paul LePage commands 92.5% implied probability in the ME-02 Republican primary market, driven by Austin Theriault's June 11 campaign suspension and endorsement, which consolidated the field of challengers just weeks before the July 9 primary. LePage's high name recognition from two gubernatorial terms, alignment with Trump-aligned voters, and strong internal polling have solidified trader consensus on his path to the nomination against Democratic incumbent Jared Golden in November. Challenger James Clark lingers at 6% with limited fundraising and visibility. Late shifts could arise from an unforeseen LePage withdrawal due to health or legal issues, a scandal, or a write-in surge, though structural barriers favor the frontrunner.