Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability of Jerome Powell exiting the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by December 31, 2026, driven by escalating tensions with the Trump administration, including a stalled Department of Justice probe into $2.5 billion Fed headquarters renovation overruns—subpoenas targeting Powell were blocked by a federal judge on April 3, with appeals likely. Powell affirmed on March 18 he has "no intention" of leaving the Board until the investigation concludes with "transparency and finality," even as his Chair term ends May 15. Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing, set for mid-April, represents a key catalyst, as Powell plans to remain Chair until approved; ongoing uncertainty clouds FOMC monetary policy path and Treasury yield expectations amid steady Fed funds rate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$118,404 交易量
2026-12-31
5月30日
42%
12月31日
67%
$118,404 交易量
5月30日
$66,377 交易量
42%
12月31日
$52,027 交易量
67%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability of Jerome Powell exiting the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by December 31, 2026, driven by escalating tensions with the Trump administration, including a stalled Department of Justice probe into $2.5 billion Fed headquarters renovation overruns—subpoenas targeting Powell were blocked by a federal judge on April 3, with appeals likely. Powell affirmed on March 18 he has "no intention" of leaving the Board until the investigation concludes with "transparency and finality," even as his Chair term ends May 15. Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing, set for mid-April, represents a key catalyst, as Powell plans to remain Chair until approved; ongoing uncertainty clouds FOMC monetary policy path and Treasury yield expectations amid steady Fed funds rate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
市场开放时间： Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
交易量
$118,404结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability of Jerome Powell exiting the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by December 31, 2026, driven by escalating tensions with the Trump administration, including a stalled Department of Justice probe into $2.5 billion Fed headquarters renovation overruns—subpoenas targeting Powell were blocked by a federal judge on April 3, with appeals likely. Powell affirmed on March 18 he has "no intention" of leaving the Board until the investigation concludes with "transparency and finality," even as his Chair term ends May 15. Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing, set for mid-April, represents a key catalyst, as Powell plans to remain Chair until approved; ongoing uncertainty clouds FOMC monetary policy path and Treasury yield expectations amid steady Fed funds rate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$118,404结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability of Jerome Powell exiting the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by December 31, 2026, driven by escalating tensions with the Trump administration, including a stalled Department of Justice probe into $2.5 billion Fed headquarters renovation overruns—subpoenas targeting Powell were blocked by a federal judge on April 3, with appeals likely. Powell affirmed on March 18 he has "no intention" of leaving the Board until the investigation concludes with "transparency and finality," even as his Chair term ends May 15. Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing, set for mid-April, represents a key catalyst, as Powell plans to remain Chair until approved; ongoing uncertainty clouds FOMC monetary policy path and Treasury yield expectations amid steady Fed funds rate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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