A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect at 05:00 GMT on November 27, 2024, following intense cross-border exchanges that escalated after Israel's September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and subsequent ground invasion of southern Lebanon on October 1. The 60-day agreement mandates phased Israeli troop withdrawal south of the Blue Line, Hezbollah fighters north of the Litani River, and enhanced UNIFIL monitoring, with no heavy weapons south of Litani. Early implementation showed restraint amid minor reported violations, but sustainability hinges on compliance amid ongoing Gaza tensions and Iranian influence. Traders watch for diplomatic verification from UN Security Council Resolution 1701 enforcers and potential escalations before full withdrawal by February 2025.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$344,867 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
3月31日
2%
6月30日
42%
4月30日
13%
$344,867 交易量
3月31日
$306,582 交易量
2%
6月30日
$37,429 交易量
42%
4月30日
$856 交易量
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect at 05:00 GMT on November 27, 2024, following intense cross-border exchanges that escalated after Israel's September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and subsequent ground invasion of southern Lebanon on October 1. The 60-day agreement mandates phased Israeli troop withdrawal south of the Blue Line, Hezbollah fighters north of the Litani River, and enhanced UNIFIL monitoring, with no heavy weapons south of Litani. Early implementation showed restraint amid minor reported violations, but sustainability hinges on compliance amid ongoing Gaza tensions and Iranian influence. Traders watch for diplomatic verification from UN Security Council Resolution 1701 enforcers and potential escalations before full withdrawal by February 2025.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 3:30 PM ET
交易量
$344,867结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect at 05:00 GMT on November 27, 2024, following intense cross-border exchanges that escalated after Israel's September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and subsequent ground invasion of southern Lebanon on October 1. The 60-day agreement mandates phased Israeli troop withdrawal south of the Blue Line, Hezbollah fighters north of the Litani River, and enhanced UNIFIL monitoring, with no heavy weapons south of Litani. Early implementation showed restraint amid minor reported violations, but sustainability hinges on compliance amid ongoing Gaza tensions and Iranian influence. Traders watch for diplomatic verification from UN Security Council Resolution 1701 enforcers and potential escalations before full withdrawal by February 2025.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$344,867结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect at 05:00 GMT on November 27, 2024, following intense cross-border exchanges that escalated after Israel's September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and subsequent ground invasion of southern Lebanon on October 1. The 60-day agreement mandates phased Israeli troop withdrawal south of the Blue Line, Hezbollah fighters north of the Litani River, and enhanced UNIFIL monitoring, with no heavy weapons south of Litani. Early implementation showed restraint amid minor reported violations, but sustainability hinges on compliance amid ongoing Gaza tensions and Iranian influence. Traders watch for diplomatic verification from UN Security Council Resolution 1701 enforcers and potential escalations before full withdrawal by February 2025.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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