Polymarket traders' consensus prices a razor-thin edge for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 30.9% implied probability, narrowly ahead of one 25 basis point cut at 27.5%, reflecting sticky inflation and an energy price shock that has upended earlier dovish bets. The FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—its second consecutive pause—paired with a dot plot signaling just one cut amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%, underscores policymaker caution despite February's soft nonfarm payrolls decline of 92,000. Geopolitical oil disruptions have boosted Treasury yields and hike odds to 20% per CME FedWatch, countering labor softening; two cuts trail at 20.5%. Key swings ahead: March jobs data on April 4 and CPI release mid-month ahead of May FOMC.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0（0 基点） 31.0%
1 (25 个基点) 28%
2（50个基点） 21%
3（75 个基点） 10%
$15,487,772 交易量
$15,487,772 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
31%
1 (25 个基点)
28%
2（50个基点）
21%
3（75 个基点）
10%
4（100 基点）
6%
5（125个基点）
2%
6（150个基点）
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
1%
8（200 个基点）
1%
9（225 个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
1%
0（0 基点） 31.0%
1 (25 个基点) 28%
2（50个基点） 21%
3（75 个基点） 10%
$15,487,772 交易量
$15,487,772 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
$2,697,353 交易量
31%
1 (25 个基点)
$895,728 交易量
28%
2（50个基点）
$824,469 交易量
21%
3（75 个基点）
$795,332 交易量
10%
4（100 基点）
$808,191 交易量
6%
5（125个基点）
$865,176 交易量
2%
6（150个基点）
$1,883,256 交易量
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
$795,134 交易量
1%
8（200 个基点）
$1,021,831 交易量
1%
9（225 个基点）
$848,374 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
$1,297,008 交易量
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$1,131,615 交易量
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
$1,624,780 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders' consensus prices a razor-thin edge for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 30.9% implied probability, narrowly ahead of one 25 basis point cut at 27.5%, reflecting sticky inflation and an energy price shock that has upended earlier dovish bets. The FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—its second consecutive pause—paired with a dot plot signaling just one cut amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%, underscores policymaker caution despite February's soft nonfarm payrolls decline of 92,000. Geopolitical oil disruptions have boosted Treasury yields and hike odds to 20% per CME FedWatch, countering labor softening; two cuts trail at 20.5%. Key swings ahead: March jobs data on April 4 and CPI release mid-month ahead of May FOMC.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$15,487,772结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders' consensus prices a razor-thin edge for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 30.9% implied probability, narrowly ahead of one 25 basis point cut at 27.5%, reflecting sticky inflation and an energy price shock that has upended earlier dovish bets. The FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—its second consecutive pause—paired with a dot plot signaling just one cut amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%, underscores policymaker caution despite February's soft nonfarm payrolls decline of 92,000. Geopolitical oil disruptions have boosted Treasury yields and hike odds to 20% per CME FedWatch, countering labor softening; two cuts trail at 20.5%. Key swings ahead: March jobs data on April 4 and CPI release mid-month ahead of May FOMC.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$15,487,772结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' consensus prices a razor-thin edge for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 30.9% implied probability, narrowly ahead of one 25 basis point cut at 27.5%, reflecting sticky inflation and an energy price shock that has upended earlier dovish bets. The FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—its second consecutive pause—paired with a dot plot signaling just one cut amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%, underscores policymaker caution despite February's soft nonfarm payrolls decline of 92,000. Geopolitical oil disruptions have boosted Treasury yields and hike odds to 20% per CME FedWatch, countering labor softening; two cuts trail at 20.5%. Key swings ahead: March jobs data on April 4 and CPI release mid-month ahead of May FOMC.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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