Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 30.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—barely ahead of 27.5% for one 25 basis point reduction—reflecting hawkish post-March FOMC signals that easing may conclude amid sticky inflation at 2.4% in February CPI and geopolitical oil shocks. The Federal Open Market Committee's March dot plot median projects one cut to around 3.4% by year-end, yet fed funds futures imply a flatter path near the current 3.50%-3.75% target, buoyed by labor market resilience despite February's 92,000 nonfarm payroll drop. Key swing factors include tomorrow's March jobs data and April inflation releases, with persistent upside inflation risks potentially locking in no cuts while further softening could justify one.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0（0 基点） 30.9%
1 (25 个基点) 28%
2（50个基点） 21%
3（75 个基点） 10%
$15,485,087 交易量
$15,485,087 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
31%
1 (25 个基点)
28%
2（50个基点）
21%
3（75 个基点）
10%
4（100 基点）
5%
5（125个基点）
2%
6（150个基点）
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
1%
8（200 个基点）
1%
9（225 个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
1%
0（0 基点） 30.9%
1 (25 个基点) 28%
2（50个基点） 21%
3（75 个基点） 10%
$15,485,087 交易量
$15,485,087 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
$2,697,307 交易量
31%
1 (25 个基点)
$895,728 交易量
28%
2（50个基点）
$824,469 交易量
21%
3（75 个基点）
$795,332 交易量
10%
4（100 基点）
$808,191 交易量
5%
5（125个基点）
$864,821 交易量
2%
6（150个基点）
$1,883,146 交易量
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
$795,134 交易量
1%
8（200 个基点）
$1,021,720 交易量
1%
9（225 个基点）
$848,374 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
$1,295,030 交易量
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$1,131,615 交易量
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
$1,624,671 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 30.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—barely ahead of 27.5% for one 25 basis point reduction—reflecting hawkish post-March FOMC signals that easing may conclude amid sticky inflation at 2.4% in February CPI and geopolitical oil shocks. The Federal Open Market Committee's March dot plot median projects one cut to around 3.4% by year-end, yet fed funds futures imply a flatter path near the current 3.50%-3.75% target, buoyed by labor market resilience despite February's 92,000 nonfarm payroll drop. Key swing factors include tomorrow's March jobs data and April inflation releases, with persistent upside inflation risks potentially locking in no cuts while further softening could justify one.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$15,485,087结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 30.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—barely ahead of 27.5% for one 25 basis point reduction—reflecting hawkish post-March FOMC signals that easing may conclude amid sticky inflation at 2.4% in February CPI and geopolitical oil shocks. The Federal Open Market Committee's March dot plot median projects one cut to around 3.4% by year-end, yet fed funds futures imply a flatter path near the current 3.50%-3.75% target, buoyed by labor market resilience despite February's 92,000 nonfarm payroll drop. Key swing factors include tomorrow's March jobs data and April inflation releases, with persistent upside inflation risks potentially locking in no cuts while further softening could justify one.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$15,485,087结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 30.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—barely ahead of 27.5% for one 25 basis point reduction—reflecting hawkish post-March FOMC signals that easing may conclude amid sticky inflation at 2.4% in February CPI and geopolitical oil shocks. The Federal Open Market Committee's March dot plot median projects one cut to around 3.4% by year-end, yet fed funds futures imply a flatter path near the current 3.50%-3.75% target, buoyed by labor market resilience despite February's 92,000 nonfarm payroll drop. Key swing factors include tomorrow's March jobs data and April inflation releases, with persistent upside inflation risks potentially locking in no cuts while further softening could justify one.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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