Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 29.5% implied probability, reflecting confirmed US airstrikes and operations this year in Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, and Nigeria amid counterterrorism and regional deterrence efforts. Recent precision strikes in Iran as of mid-March, targeting command facilities during heightened tensions, have sustained but not expanded the tally, while earlier January action in Venezuela via Operation Absolute Resolve marked regime pressure against narco-trafficking. The tight race with 8 (19.7%) and 9 (16.2%) stems from uncertainty over nine months remaining: potential escalations like Mexico cartel strikes or African expansions could push higher, whereas diplomatic de-escalation or resolved hotspots might cap at 7, mirroring historical patterns of sustained but contained operations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于7 30.2%
8 19.7%
9 16.2%
10 10.5%
$719,410 交易量
$719,410 交易量
2026-12-31
6
9%
7
30%
8
20%
9
16%
10
10%
11
4%
12
2%
13
1%
14
1%
15个以上
4%
7 30.2%
8 19.7%
9 16.2%
10 10.5%
$719,410 交易量
$719,410 交易量
2026-12-31
6
$417,176 交易量
9%
7
$3,938 交易量
30%
8
$5,748 交易量
20%
9
$8,921 交易量
16%
10
$10,262 交易量
10%
11
$7,995 交易量
4%
12
$7,705 交易量
2%
13
$7,250 交易量
1%
14
$41,441 交易量
1%
15个以上
$49,132 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 29.5% implied probability, reflecting confirmed US airstrikes and operations this year in Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, and Nigeria amid counterterrorism and regional deterrence efforts. Recent precision strikes in Iran as of mid-March, targeting command facilities during heightened tensions, have sustained but not expanded the tally, while earlier January action in Venezuela via Operation Absolute Resolve marked regime pressure against narco-trafficking. The tight race with 8 (19.7%) and 9 (16.2%) stems from uncertainty over nine months remaining: potential escalations like Mexico cartel strikes or African expansions could push higher, whereas diplomatic de-escalation or resolved hotspots might cap at 7, mirroring historical patterns of sustained but contained operations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
交易量
$719,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 29.5% implied probability, reflecting confirmed US airstrikes and operations this year in Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, and Nigeria amid counterterrorism and regional deterrence efforts. Recent precision strikes in Iran as of mid-March, targeting command facilities during heightened tensions, have sustained but not expanded the tally, while earlier January action in Venezuela via Operation Absolute Resolve marked regime pressure against narco-trafficking. The tight race with 8 (19.7%) and 9 (16.2%) stems from uncertainty over nine months remaining: potential escalations like Mexico cartel strikes or African expansions could push higher, whereas diplomatic de-escalation or resolved hotspots might cap at 7, mirroring historical patterns of sustained but contained operations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$719,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 29.5% implied probability, reflecting confirmed US airstrikes and operations this year in Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, and Nigeria amid counterterrorism and regional deterrence efforts. Recent precision strikes in Iran as of mid-March, targeting command facilities during heightened tensions, have sustained but not expanded the tally, while earlier January action in Venezuela via Operation Absolute Resolve marked regime pressure against narco-trafficking. The tight race with 8 (19.7%) and 9 (16.2%) stems from uncertainty over nine months remaining: potential escalations like Mexico cartel strikes or African expansions could push higher, whereas diplomatic de-escalation or resolved hotspots might cap at 7, mirroring historical patterns of sustained but contained operations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题