Trader consensus favors three countries at 61% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on military and nuclear targets deep inside Iran since late February, over 250 strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon through March 28—including a deadly hit on journalists in southern Beirut—and limited coalition actions against Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces sites in Iraq as recently as March 3 and potentially March 29. The ≥4 outcome at 38% reflects debate over routine Syrian operations qualifying as new strikes and risks of escalation to Yemen following Houthi missile attacks on Israel on March 28, amid the broader US-Israel campaign against Iran now entering its second month with no further countries confirmed by March 29. With the month ending soon, late-breaking actions could shift odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$321,667 交易量
$321,667 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
3
61%
≥4
39%
$321,667 交易量
$321,667 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
3
$92,257 交易量
61%
≥4
$200,224 交易量
39%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors three countries at 61% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on military and nuclear targets deep inside Iran since late February, over 250 strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon through March 28—including a deadly hit on journalists in southern Beirut—and limited coalition actions against Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces sites in Iraq as recently as March 3 and potentially March 29. The ≥4 outcome at 38% reflects debate over routine Syrian operations qualifying as new strikes and risks of escalation to Yemen following Houthi missile attacks on Israel on March 28, amid the broader US-Israel campaign against Iran now entering its second month with no further countries confirmed by March 29. With the month ending soon, late-breaking actions could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$321,667结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors three countries at 61% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on military and nuclear targets deep inside Iran since late February, over 250 strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon through March 28—including a deadly hit on journalists in southern Beirut—and limited coalition actions against Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces sites in Iraq as recently as March 3 and potentially March 29. The ≥4 outcome at 38% reflects debate over routine Syrian operations qualifying as new strikes and risks of escalation to Yemen following Houthi missile attacks on Israel on March 28, amid the broader US-Israel campaign against Iran now entering its second month with no further countries confirmed by March 29. With the month ending soon, late-breaking actions could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$321,667结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors three countries at 61% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on military and nuclear targets deep inside Iran since late February, over 250 strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon through March 28—including a deadly hit on journalists in southern Beirut—and limited coalition actions against Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces sites in Iraq as recently as March 3 and potentially March 29. The ≥4 outcome at 38% reflects debate over routine Syrian operations qualifying as new strikes and risks of escalation to Yemen following Houthi missile attacks on Israel on March 28, amid the broader US-Israel campaign against Iran now entering its second month with no further countries confirmed by March 29. With the month ending soon, late-breaking actions could shift odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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