The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.31% on March 31, 2026, down from an eight-month high of 4.44% earlier in the week, reflecting trader consensus on subdued near-term rate pressures despite persistent inflation risks. The Federal Reserve's March 17-18 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, with updated projections anticipating elevated inflation amid geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran conflict pushing oil above $100 per barrel and spurring safe-haven flows. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, supporting market-implied odds of no immediate hikes, though basis point moves in upcoming April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC could recalibrate yield expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于到3月31日， 10年期国债收益率将达到多高？
到3月31日， 10年期国债收益率将达到多高？
$273,868 交易量
2026-03-31
4.5%
<1%
4.6%
<1%
4.8%
<1%
5.0%
<1%
$273,868 交易量
4.5%
$70,934 交易量
<1%
4.6%
$26,440 交易量
<1%
4.8%
$30,073 交易量
<1%
5.0%
$32,461 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.31% on March 31, 2026, down from an eight-month high of 4.44% earlier in the week, reflecting trader consensus on subdued near-term rate pressures despite persistent inflation risks. The Federal Reserve's March 17-18 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, with updated projections anticipating elevated inflation amid geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran conflict pushing oil above $100 per barrel and spurring safe-haven flows. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, supporting market-implied odds of no immediate hikes, though basis point moves in upcoming April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC could recalibrate yield expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Dec 9, 2025, 2:17 PM ET
交易量
$273,868结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Dec 9, 2025, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.31% on March 31, 2026, down from an eight-month high of 4.44% earlier in the week, reflecting trader consensus on subdued near-term rate pressures despite persistent inflation risks. The Federal Reserve's March 17-18 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, with updated projections anticipating elevated inflation amid geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran conflict pushing oil above $100 per barrel and spurring safe-haven flows. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, supporting market-implied odds of no immediate hikes, though basis point moves in upcoming April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC could recalibrate yield expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$273,868结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Dec 9, 2025, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.31% on March 31, 2026, down from an eight-month high of 4.44% earlier in the week, reflecting trader consensus on subdued near-term rate pressures despite persistent inflation risks. The Federal Reserve's March 17-18 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, with updated projections anticipating elevated inflation amid geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran conflict pushing oil above $100 per barrel and spurring safe-haven flows. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, supporting market-implied odds of no immediate hikes, though basis point moves in upcoming April 10 CPI data and the April 28-29 FOMC could recalibrate yield expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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