Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 76-77°F (58.5% implied probability) in New York City on April 1, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a peak near 76°F at Central Park under partly sunny skies with light southerly winds. This positioning reflects strong agreement among GFS and ECMWF models, which depict a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm air advection from the south and subsidence inhibiting clouds, pushing readings well above the 56°F climatological normal. Current observations already approaching 76°F mid-morning underscore solar heating potential, though a possible back-door cold front introduces minor uncertainty that could trim highs by 5-10°F if it surges farther south. Updated model runs expected this afternoon may refine probabilities ahead of evening resolution based on official LaGuardia or Central Park measurements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in NYC on April 1?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 1?
76-77°F 50%
74-75°F 26%
78-79°F 19%
72-73°F 5.1%
$107,026 交易量
$107,026 交易量
2026-04-01
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
26%
76-77°F
50%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 50%
74-75°F 26%
78-79°F 19%
72-73°F 5.1%
$107,026 交易量
$107,026 交易量
2026-04-01
70-71°F
$12,376 交易量
1%
72-73°F
$11,305 交易量
5%
74-75°F
$9,737 交易量
26%
76-77°F
$6,417 交易量
50%
78-79°F
$8,269 交易量
19%
80-81°F
$7,876 交易量
2%
82-83°F
$7,209 交易量
1%
84-85°F
$5,032 交易量
<1%
86-87°F
$5,195 交易量
1%
88°F or higher
$12,058 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 76-77°F (58.5% implied probability) in New York City on April 1, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a peak near 76°F at Central Park under partly sunny skies with light southerly winds. This positioning reflects strong agreement among GFS and ECMWF models, which depict a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm air advection from the south and subsidence inhibiting clouds, pushing readings well above the 56°F climatological normal. Current observations already approaching 76°F mid-morning underscore solar heating potential, though a possible back-door cold front introduces minor uncertainty that could trim highs by 5-10°F if it surges farther south. Updated model runs expected this afternoon may refine probabilities ahead of evening resolution based on official LaGuardia or Central Park measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
交易量
$107,026结束日期
2026-04-01市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 76-77°F (58.5% implied probability) in New York City on April 1, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a peak near 76°F at Central Park under partly sunny skies with light southerly winds. This positioning reflects strong agreement among GFS and ECMWF models, which depict a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm air advection from the south and subsidence inhibiting clouds, pushing readings well above the 56°F climatological normal. Current observations already approaching 76°F mid-morning underscore solar heating potential, though a possible back-door cold front introduces minor uncertainty that could trim highs by 5-10°F if it surges farther south. Updated model runs expected this afternoon may refine probabilities ahead of evening resolution based on official LaGuardia or Central Park measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$107,026结束日期
2026-04-01市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 76-77°F (58.5% implied probability) in New York City on April 1, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a peak near 76°F at Central Park under partly sunny skies with light southerly winds. This positioning reflects strong agreement among GFS and ECMWF models, which depict a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm air advection from the south and subsidence inhibiting clouds, pushing readings well above the 56°F climatological normal. Current observations already approaching 76°F mid-morning underscore solar heating potential, though a possible back-door cold front introduces minor uncertainty that could trim highs by 5-10°F if it surges farther south. Updated model runs expected this afternoon may refine probabilities ahead of evening resolution based on official LaGuardia or Central Park measurements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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