King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, Bahrain's absolute monarch since 1999, maintains unchallenged authority, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability that he will not be removed as leader. No official announcements, health disclosures, or domestic challenges have surfaced in the past 30 days to suggest abdication, coup risks, or succession triggers, reinforcing the stability of the Al Khalifa dynasty. The 74-year-old king continues diplomatic engagements, including Gulf Cooperation Council coordination and US alliance hosting the Fifth Fleet, while Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa remains the designated heir in this hereditary system. Absent late-breaking scandals or regional upheavals, structural continuity sustains high odds against leadership change.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$112,709 交易量
$112,709 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
是
$112,709 交易量
$112,709 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, Bahrain's absolute monarch since 1999, maintains unchallenged authority, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability that he will not be removed as leader. No official announcements, health disclosures, or domestic challenges have surfaced in the past 30 days to suggest abdication, coup risks, or succession triggers, reinforcing the stability of the Al Khalifa dynasty. The 74-year-old king continues diplomatic engagements, including Gulf Cooperation Council coordination and US alliance hosting the Fifth Fleet, while Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa remains the designated heir in this hereditary system. Absent late-breaking scandals or regional upheavals, structural continuity sustains high odds against leadership change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 4, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
交易量
$112,709结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 1:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, Bahrain's absolute monarch since 1999, maintains unchallenged authority, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability that he will not be removed as leader. No official announcements, health disclosures, or domestic challenges have surfaced in the past 30 days to suggest abdication, coup risks, or succession triggers, reinforcing the stability of the Al Khalifa dynasty. The 74-year-old king continues diplomatic engagements, including Gulf Cooperation Council coordination and US alliance hosting the Fifth Fleet, while Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa remains the designated heir in this hereditary system. Absent late-breaking scandals or regional upheavals, structural continuity sustains high odds against leadership change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$112,709结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 1:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, Bahrain's absolute monarch since 1999, maintains unchallenged authority, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability that he will not be removed as leader. No official announcements, health disclosures, or domestic challenges have surfaced in the past 30 days to suggest abdication, coup risks, or succession triggers, reinforcing the stability of the Al Khalifa dynasty. The 74-year-old king continues diplomatic engagements, including Gulf Cooperation Council coordination and US alliance hosting the Fifth Fleet, while Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa remains the designated heir in this hereditary system. Absent late-breaking scandals or regional upheavals, structural continuity sustains high odds against leadership change.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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