Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Social Democrats as the winner of Denmark's next parliamentary election, with odds implying a 99.2% probability, driven by their persistent double-digit lead in recent polls—typically 35-40% support—under Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen's steady leadership. Key factors include effective handling of economic stability, welfare policies, and a rightward shift on immigration that broadened their voter base since the 2022 vote, where they secured 50 seats. No major challengers like Venstre or the Denmark Democrats have closed the gap amid stable coalition dynamics and absent snap election triggers. Realistic challenges could arise from a sudden economic shock, leadership scandal, or surge by protest parties like the Greens, though historical base rates suggest low upset risk in Denmark's proportional system.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于社会民主党 99.2%
自由党 <1%
自由联盟 <1%
绿党 <1%
$701,443 交易量
$701,443 交易量

社会民主党
99%

自由党
1%

丹麦民主党
<1%

绿党
<1%

自由联盟
<1%

中间党
<1%

保守党
<1%

红绿联盟
<1%

丹麦人民党
<1%

丹麦社会自由党
<1%

替代党
<1%

公民党
<1%

联盟党
<1%

法罗群岛社会民主党
<1%

因纽特人团结党
<1%

Naleraq
<1%
社会民主党 99.2%
自由党 <1%
自由联盟 <1%
绿党 <1%
$701,443 交易量
$701,443 交易量

社会民主党
99%

自由党
1%

丹麦民主党
<1%

绿党
<1%

自由联盟
<1%

中间党
<1%

保守党
<1%

红绿联盟
<1%

丹麦人民党
<1%

丹麦社会自由党
<1%

替代党
<1%

公民党
<1%

联盟党
<1%

法罗群岛社会民主党
<1%

因纽特人团结党
<1%

Naleraq
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Danish Folketing (unicameral national legislature) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Danish Folketing in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Danish government sources such as the Ministry of Interior and Health (https://www.valg.im.dk/) and Statistics Denmark (https://www.dst.dk/en).
市场开放时间: Feb 26, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Social Democrats as the winner of Denmark's next parliamentary election, with odds implying a 99.2% probability, driven by their persistent double-digit lead in recent polls—typically 35-40% support—under Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen's steady leadership. Key factors include effective handling of economic stability, welfare policies, and a rightward shift on immigration that broadened their voter base since the 2022 vote, where they secured 50 seats. No major challengers like Venstre or the Denmark Democrats have closed the gap amid stable coalition dynamics and absent snap election triggers. Realistic challenges could arise from a sudden economic shock, leadership scandal, or surge by protest parties like the Greens, though historical base rates suggest low upset risk in Denmark's proportional system.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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