Incumbent Rep. Nanette Barragán's reelection bid in California's heavily Democratic 44th Congressional District drives trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting the area's 55% Democratic voter registration versus 15% Republican and entrenched incumbency advantages in South Los Angeles. Recent mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 preserved the district's safe blue status without introducing competitive shifts, while endorsements from groups like CHC BOLD PAC reinforce her position ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary. No prominent Republican challenger has emerged to alter dynamics. Potential disruptions include a primary upset sending two GOP candidates to November 3, an unforeseen incumbent scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though historical base rates favor Democrats in such districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,135 交易量
93%
共和党
$1,063 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Nanette Barragán's reelection bid in California's heavily Democratic 44th Congressional District drives trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting the area's 55% Democratic voter registration versus 15% Republican and entrenched incumbency advantages in South Los Angeles. Recent mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 preserved the district's safe blue status without introducing competitive shifts, while endorsements from groups like CHC BOLD PAC reinforce her position ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary. No prominent Republican challenger has emerged to alter dynamics. Potential disruptions include a primary upset sending two GOP candidates to November 3, an unforeseen incumbent scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though historical base rates favor Democrats in such districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
交易量
$7,198结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Nanette Barragán's reelection bid in California's heavily Democratic 44th Congressional District drives trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting the area's 55% Democratic voter registration versus 15% Republican and entrenched incumbency advantages in South Los Angeles. Recent mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 preserved the district's safe blue status without introducing competitive shifts, while endorsements from groups like CHC BOLD PAC reinforce her position ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary. No prominent Republican challenger has emerged to alter dynamics. Potential disruptions include a primary upset sending two GOP candidates to November 3, an unforeseen incumbent scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though historical base rates favor Democrats in such districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$7,198结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Nanette Barragán's reelection bid in California's heavily Democratic 44th Congressional District drives trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting the area's 55% Democratic voter registration versus 15% Republican and entrenched incumbency advantages in South Los Angeles. Recent mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 preserved the district's safe blue status without introducing competitive shifts, while endorsements from groups like CHC BOLD PAC reinforce her position ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary. No prominent Republican challenger has emerged to alter dynamics. Potential disruptions include a primary upset sending two GOP candidates to November 3, an unforeseen incumbent scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though historical base rates favor Democrats in such districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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