Trader consensus favors CDU as the leading party in the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with 52.5% implied probability reflecting its consistent 22-23% lead in late February polls from INSA and Civey, outpacing fragmented opposition including AfD and Die Linke at 15-17%, SPD and Grüne around 15-16%. Recent polls show no major shifts since January's BerlinTrend, despite criticism of the CDU-SPD Senate's handling of an early 2026 power outage affecting 45,000 residents, as satisfaction ticked up slightly without altering voting intentions. BSW's decline ties to national setbacks like Brandenburg coalition failure, while FDP's March 14 nomination of Christoph Meyer has yet to boost its sub-4% support. Under proportional representation, CDU's incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and opposition disunity underpin its edge, though projected coalitions like CDU-SPD fall short of a majority, signaling potential three-party deals post-election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于基民盟 53%
格林党 12.0%
林克党 11%
社民党 10.1%
$2,533,556 交易量
$2,533,556 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
53%
格林党
12%
林克党
11%
社民党
10%
德国选择党
7%
BSW
1%
自民党
<1%
FW
<1%
基民盟 53%
格林党 12.0%
林克党 11%
社民党 10.1%
$2,533,556 交易量
$2,533,556 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
$9,294 交易量
53%
格林党
$23,306 交易量
12%
林克党
$8,381 交易量
11%
社民党
$285,211 交易量
10%
德国选择党
$2,176,450 交易量
7%
BSW
$16,924 交易量
1%
自民党
$8,832 交易量
<1%
FW
$5,157 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU as the leading party in the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with 52.5% implied probability reflecting its consistent 22-23% lead in late February polls from INSA and Civey, outpacing fragmented opposition including AfD and Die Linke at 15-17%, SPD and Grüne around 15-16%. Recent polls show no major shifts since January's BerlinTrend, despite criticism of the CDU-SPD Senate's handling of an early 2026 power outage affecting 45,000 residents, as satisfaction ticked up slightly without altering voting intentions. BSW's decline ties to national setbacks like Brandenburg coalition failure, while FDP's March 14 nomination of Christoph Meyer has yet to boost its sub-4% support. Under proportional representation, CDU's incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and opposition disunity underpin its edge, though projected coalitions like CDU-SPD fall short of a majority, signaling potential three-party deals post-election.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
交易量
$2,533,556结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU as the leading party in the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with 52.5% implied probability reflecting its consistent 22-23% lead in late February polls from INSA and Civey, outpacing fragmented opposition including AfD and Die Linke at 15-17%, SPD and Grüne around 15-16%. Recent polls show no major shifts since January's BerlinTrend, despite criticism of the CDU-SPD Senate's handling of an early 2026 power outage affecting 45,000 residents, as satisfaction ticked up slightly without altering voting intentions. BSW's decline ties to national setbacks like Brandenburg coalition failure, while FDP's March 14 nomination of Christoph Meyer has yet to boost its sub-4% support. Under proportional representation, CDU's incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and opposition disunity underpin its edge, though projected coalitions like CDU-SPD fall short of a majority, signaling potential three-party deals post-election.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$2,533,556结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU as the leading party in the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with 52.5% implied probability reflecting its consistent 22-23% lead in late February polls from INSA and Civey, outpacing fragmented opposition including AfD and Die Linke at 15-17%, SPD and Grüne around 15-16%. Recent polls show no major shifts since January's BerlinTrend, despite criticism of the CDU-SPD Senate's handling of an early 2026 power outage affecting 45,000 residents, as satisfaction ticked up slightly without altering voting intentions. BSW's decline ties to national setbacks like Brandenburg coalition failure, while FDP's March 14 nomination of Christoph Meyer has yet to boost its sub-4% support. Under proportional representation, CDU's incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and opposition disunity underpin its edge, though projected coalitions like CDU-SPD fall short of a majority, signaling potential three-party deals post-election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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