Trader consensus heavily favors the CDU as winner of Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent polling lead at around 22% in the latest February INSA survey, well ahead of AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Die Linke clustered at 15-17%. This edge stems from incumbency under Regierender Bürgermeister Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition, which polls show losing its majority amid opposition fragmentation and no party nearing 30%. Recent stability follows national CDU momentum from Friedrich Merz's landslide party leadership re-election on February 20, boosting state-level prospects; no major shifts in the past month, with upcoming campaign events poised to test these dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于基民盟 53%
格林党 12.0%
林克党 11%
社民党 10.1%
$2,534,460 交易量
$2,534,460 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
53%
格林党
12%
林克党
11%
社民党
10%
德国选择党
7%
BSW
1%
自民党
<1%
FW
<1%
基民盟 53%
格林党 12.0%
林克党 11%
社民党 10.1%
$2,534,460 交易量
$2,534,460 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
$9,294 交易量
53%
格林党
$23,306 交易量
12%
林克党
$8,381 交易量
11%
社民党
$285,211 交易量
10%
德国选择党
$2,176,555 交易量
7%
BSW
$17,724 交易量
1%
自民党
$8,832 交易量
<1%
FW
$5,157 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus heavily favors the CDU as winner of Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent polling lead at around 22% in the latest February INSA survey, well ahead of AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Die Linke clustered at 15-17%. This edge stems from incumbency under Regierender Bürgermeister Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition, which polls show losing its majority amid opposition fragmentation and no party nearing 30%. Recent stability follows national CDU momentum from Friedrich Merz's landslide party leadership re-election on February 20, boosting state-level prospects; no major shifts in the past month, with upcoming campaign events poised to test these dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
交易量
$2,534,460结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus heavily favors the CDU as winner of Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent polling lead at around 22% in the latest February INSA survey, well ahead of AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Die Linke clustered at 15-17%. This edge stems from incumbency under Regierender Bürgermeister Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition, which polls show losing its majority amid opposition fragmentation and no party nearing 30%. Recent stability follows national CDU momentum from Friedrich Merz's landslide party leadership re-election on February 20, boosting state-level prospects; no major shifts in the past month, with upcoming campaign events poised to test these dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$2,534,460结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the CDU as winner of Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting its consistent polling lead at around 22% in the latest February INSA survey, well ahead of AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Die Linke clustered at 15-17%. This edge stems from incumbency under Regierender Bürgermeister Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD grand coalition, which polls show losing its majority amid opposition fragmentation and no party nearing 30%. Recent stability follows national CDU momentum from Friedrich Merz's landslide party leadership re-election on February 20, boosting state-level prospects; no major shifts in the past month, with upcoming campaign events poised to test these dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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