Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its March 12 meeting, driven by sticky core inflation and resilient economic indicators that reduce urgency for further easing. Headline CPI eased to 1.9% in December 2024, but core measures hovered above 2.5%, while unemployment held steady at 6.6% and wage growth exceeded 4%, signaling persistent price pressures amid a soft landing. Recent 75 basis points of cuts since June have calibrated policy without overheating, aligning with Governor Macklem's cautious rhetoric. Challenges include a sharper-than-expected GDP slowdown or sub-2% core inflation print, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 bps cut if growth falters.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于维持不变 100.0%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
降息25个基点 <1%
加息 <1%
$64,938 交易量
$64,938 交易量
2026-03-18
降息50个基点以上
否
降息25个基点
否
维持不变
是
加息
否
维持不变 100.0%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
降息25个基点 <1%
加息 <1%
$64,938 交易量
$64,938 交易量
2026-03-18
降息50个基点以上
$0 交易量
否
降息25个基点
$64,938 交易量
否
维持不变
$0 交易量
是
加息
$0 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's March 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its March 12 meeting, driven by sticky core inflation and resilient economic indicators that reduce urgency for further easing. Headline CPI eased to 1.9% in December 2024, but core measures hovered above 2.5%, while unemployment held steady at 6.6% and wage growth exceeded 4%, signaling persistent price pressures amid a soft landing. Recent 75 basis points of cuts since June have calibrated policy without overheating, aligning with Governor Macklem's cautious rhetoric. Challenges include a sharper-than-expected GDP slowdown or sub-2% core inflation print, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 bps cut if growth falters.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's March 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
交易量
$64,938结束日期
2026-03-18市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's March 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its March 12 meeting, driven by sticky core inflation and resilient economic indicators that reduce urgency for further easing. Headline CPI eased to 1.9% in December 2024, but core measures hovered above 2.5%, while unemployment held steady at 6.6% and wage growth exceeded 4%, signaling persistent price pressures amid a soft landing. Recent 75 basis points of cuts since June have calibrated policy without overheating, aligning with Governor Macklem's cautious rhetoric. Challenges include a sharper-than-expected GDP slowdown or sub-2% core inflation print, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 bps cut if growth falters.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's March 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$64,938结束日期
2026-03-18市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its March 12 meeting, driven by sticky core inflation and resilient economic indicators that reduce urgency for further easing. Headline CPI eased to 1.9% in December 2024, but core measures hovered above 2.5%, while unemployment held steady at 6.6% and wage growth exceeded 4%, signaling persistent price pressures amid a soft landing. Recent 75 basis points of cuts since June have calibrated policy without overheating, aligning with Governor Macklem's cautious rhetoric. Challenges include a sharper-than-expected GDP slowdown or sub-2% core inflation print, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 bps cut if growth falters.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题