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icon for 2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？
科技·AI

2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？

icon for 2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？
科技·AI

2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？

12月 31

12月 31

是

23% 概率
Polymarket

$66,253 交易量

是

23% 概率
Polymarket

$66,253 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices a slim 23.5% chance of any AI model reaching 90% on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027, reflecting the benchmark's design as a gauntlet of unsolved research-level math problems across Tiers 1-4 that have stymied even leading large language models. Top scores hover around 52% for OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro overall and 48% on the hardest Tier 4 via Google DeepMind's new multi-agent AI co-mathematician, which doubled prior baselines through stateful workflows and proof verification—yet still far from dominance. Epoch AI's May 12 review, where GPT-5.5 flagged fatal errors in roughly one-third of problems (mostly confirmed valid), signals potential score revisions downward. With 19 months left, rapid agentic gains offer upside, but sustained scaling plateaus and open-problem barriers sustain skepticism absent major architectural breakthroughs or upcoming releases like GPT-5.6.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$66,253
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices a slim 23.5% chance of any AI model reaching 90% on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027, reflecting the benchmark's design as a gauntlet of unsolved research-level math problems across Tiers 1-4 that have stymied even leading large language models. Top scores hover around 52% for OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro overall and 48% on the hardest Tier 4 via Google DeepMind's new multi-agent AI co-mathematician, which doubled prior baselines through stateful workflows and proof verification—yet still far from dominance. Epoch AI's May 12 review, where GPT-5.5 flagged fatal errors in roughly one-third of problems (mostly confirmed valid), signals potential score revisions downward. With 19 months left, rapid agentic gains offer upside, but sustained scaling plateaus and open-problem barriers sustain skepticism absent major architectural breakthroughs or upcoming releases like GPT-5.6.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$66,253
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"AI模型在2027年前在FrontierMath基准测试上得分≥90%？"，概率为 23%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 23¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 23%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？"已产生 $66.3K 的总交易量（自Nov 12, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？"的当前领先者是"AI模型在2027年前在FrontierMath基准测试上得分≥90%？"，概率为 23%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 23%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2027年之前，人工智能模型在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。