Persistent Houthi threats in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait have driven trader consensus to a 90.5% implied probability against 2,000+ container ship transits through the Suez Canal in H1 2026, reflecting carriers' reluctance to resume the route amid elevated maritime risks. In early March 2026, Houthi officials announced plans to restart missile and drone attacks on shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM to reinstate Cape of Good Hope diversions and pause Red Sea returns. Despite a lull in attacks since late 2025 and some test transits, Suez container traffic remains 60-80% below pre-crisis peaks of around 2,900 in H1 periods, with analysts forecasting gradual recovery only later in 2026 if security stabilizes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2026年上半年苏伊士运河2k +集装箱船过境?
2026年上半年苏伊士运河2k +集装箱船过境?
是
是
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
市场开放时间: Nov 25, 2025, 4:59 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent Houthi threats in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait have driven trader consensus to a 90.5% implied probability against 2,000+ container ship transits through the Suez Canal in H1 2026, reflecting carriers' reluctance to resume the route amid elevated maritime risks. In early March 2026, Houthi officials announced plans to restart missile and drone attacks on shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM to reinstate Cape of Good Hope diversions and pause Red Sea returns. Despite a lull in attacks since late 2025 and some test transits, Suez container traffic remains 60-80% below pre-crisis peaks of around 2,900 in H1 periods, with analysts forecasting gradual recovery only later in 2026 if security stabilizes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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