Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain 98.2% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea disruptions from Houthi threats that have slashed volumes to historic lows. January 2026 recorded just 150 container transits—the weakest in a decade—followed by further declines in February amid cautious carrier returns by CMA CGM and others, only for major lines like Maersk to reinstate Cape of Good Hope diversions in early March due to renewed attacks. Overall Q1 traffic remains 80-90% below pre-crisis norms, with daily totals under 10 containerships. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire or naval intervention sparking a late-quarter surge, though resolution proximity limits upside potential.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2026年第一季度苏伊士运河过境集装箱船超过1000艘？
2026年第一季度苏伊士运河过境集装箱船超过1000艘？
是
$49,744 交易量
$49,744 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$49,744 交易量
$49,744 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain 98.2% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea disruptions from Houthi threats that have slashed volumes to historic lows. January 2026 recorded just 150 container transits—the weakest in a decade—followed by further declines in February amid cautious carrier returns by CMA CGM and others, only for major lines like Maersk to reinstate Cape of Good Hope diversions in early March due to renewed attacks. Overall Q1 traffic remains 80-90% below pre-crisis norms, with daily totals under 10 containerships. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire or naval intervention sparking a late-quarter surge, though resolution proximity limits upside potential.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
市场开放时间： Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
交易量
$49,744结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain 98.2% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea disruptions from Houthi threats that have slashed volumes to historic lows. January 2026 recorded just 150 container transits—the weakest in a decade—followed by further declines in February amid cautious carrier returns by CMA CGM and others, only for major lines like Maersk to reinstate Cape of Good Hope diversions in early March due to renewed attacks. Overall Q1 traffic remains 80-90% below pre-crisis norms, with daily totals under 10 containerships. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire or naval intervention sparking a late-quarter surge, though resolution proximity limits upside potential.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
交易量
$49,744结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain 98.2% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea disruptions from Houthi threats that have slashed volumes to historic lows. January 2026 recorded just 150 container transits—the weakest in a decade—followed by further declines in February amid cautious carrier returns by CMA CGM and others, only for major lines like Maersk to reinstate Cape of Good Hope diversions in early March due to renewed attacks. Overall Q1 traffic remains 80-90% below pre-crisis norms, with daily totals under 10 containerships. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire or naval intervention sparking a late-quarter surge, though resolution proximity limits upside potential.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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