Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 50.5% implied probability for possessing the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent drop to #2 following Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview surge to #1 last week via superior Elo gains in crowdsourced battles. Google's 25.5% share reflects bets on potential OpenAI GPT-5.5 or xAI Grok-4 updates overtaking it for #1, while DeepSeek's 8.4% stems from V3.2's strong reasoning benchmarks. March's model avalanche—including 20+ releases—intensified competition, with upcoming April launches like DeepSeek V4 and Claude Sonnet 4.7 as key catalysts that could shift rankings before June resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Anthropic 51%
Google 26%
OpenAI 14%
DeepSeek 8.4%
$333,818 交易量
$333,818 交易量

Anthropic
51%

26%

OpenAI
14%

DeepSeek
8%

xAI
7%

Z.ai
1%

美團
<1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 51%
Google 26%
OpenAI 14%
DeepSeek 8.4%
$333,818 交易量
$333,818 交易量

Anthropic
51%

26%

OpenAI
14%

DeepSeek
8%

xAI
7%

Z.ai
1%

美團
<1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 50.5% implied probability for possessing the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent drop to #2 following Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview surge to #1 last week via superior Elo gains in crowdsourced battles. Google's 25.5% share reflects bets on potential OpenAI GPT-5.5 or xAI Grok-4 updates overtaking it for #1, while DeepSeek's 8.4% stems from V3.2's strong reasoning benchmarks. March's model avalanche—including 20+ releases—intensified competition, with upcoming April launches like DeepSeek V4 and Claude Sonnet 4.7 as key catalysts that could shift rankings before June resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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