Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 55% implied probability of holding the second-best AI model by end-June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant showings on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—often ranking just behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4 in overall Elo scores, while leading in document reasoning and complex tasks following its February 2026 release. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 24.5% amid strong multimodal benchmarks but inconsistent reasoning edges, while DeepSeek's open-source V3.2 garners 8.4% for tying closed models in efficiency. Recent March waves of frontier releases from xAI's Grok 4.20 and others intensified competition, yet Anthropic's rapid iterations and rumored Claude Mythos preview at the May 6 Code with Claude event bolster its positioning, though product slips or surprise benchmarks could shift dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Anthropic 60%
Google 23%
DeepSeek 8.3%
xAI 6%
$334,726 交易量
$334,726 交易量

Anthropic
60%

23%

DeepSeek
8%

xAI
6%

OpenAI
5%

Z.ai
1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

美團
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 60%
Google 23%
DeepSeek 8.3%
xAI 6%
$334,726 交易量
$334,726 交易量

Anthropic
60%

23%

DeepSeek
8%

xAI
6%

OpenAI
5%

Z.ai
1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

美團
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 55% implied probability of holding the second-best AI model by end-June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant showings on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—often ranking just behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4 in overall Elo scores, while leading in document reasoning and complex tasks following its February 2026 release. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 24.5% amid strong multimodal benchmarks but inconsistent reasoning edges, while DeepSeek's open-source V3.2 garners 8.4% for tying closed models in efficiency. Recent March waves of frontier releases from xAI's Grok 4.20 and others intensified competition, yet Anthropic's rapid iterations and rumored Claude Mythos preview at the May 6 Code with Claude event bolster its positioning, though product slips or surprise benchmarks could shift dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions