Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 65.5% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and its "thinking" variant dominating the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard's top two spots—a position held steadily for months amid superior reasoning and benchmark performance. A recent data leak revealing Anthropic's forthcoming Mythos model, described as a "step change" in capabilities and now in early testing, has further solidified sentiment just days ago. Google trails at 23.5% with competitive Gemini 3.1 Pro in third place, while OpenAI's March GPT-5.4 release at 7.5% disappointed by failing to overtake leaders. xAI's Grok 4.20 ranks fourth, capping its 2.4% odds; watch for pre-June announcements from labs that could shift the frontier AI race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Anthropic 65.5%
Google 24%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.4%
$2,914,461 交易量
$2,914,461 交易量

Anthropic
66%

24%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
<1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

美團
<1%
Anthropic 65.5%
Google 24%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.4%
$2,914,461 交易量
$2,914,461 交易量

Anthropic
66%

24%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
<1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

美團
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 65.5% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and its "thinking" variant dominating the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard's top two spots—a position held steadily for months amid superior reasoning and benchmark performance. A recent data leak revealing Anthropic's forthcoming Mythos model, described as a "step change" in capabilities and now in early testing, has further solidified sentiment just days ago. Google trails at 23.5% with competitive Gemini 3.1 Pro in third place, while OpenAI's March GPT-5.4 release at 7.5% disappointed by failing to overtake leaders. xAI's Grok 4.20 ranks fourth, capping its 2.4% odds; watch for pre-June announcements from labs that could shift the frontier AI race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions