Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 67.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely resolved via LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—driven by Claude Opus 4.6's February launch, which surged to the top spot with superior coding, planning, and natural prose benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid feature rollouts like computer-use tools and persistent memory. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released mid-February, trails at 23.5% despite leading reasoning tests like GPQA at 94.3%, reflecting its multimodal strengths but weaker developer ecosystem traction. OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations lag further at 5.5% due to stagnant recent demos, while dark horses like xAI remain speculative; upcoming model previews or benchmark resets before quarter-end could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Anthropic 66.9%
Google 24%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.8%
$2,884,447 交易量
$2,884,447 交易量

Anthropic
67%

24%

OpenAI
6%

xAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

美團
<1%
Anthropic 66.9%
Google 24%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.8%
$2,884,447 交易量
$2,884,447 交易量

Anthropic
67%

24%

OpenAI
6%

xAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

阿里巴巴
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

美團
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 67.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely resolved via LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—driven by Claude Opus 4.6's February launch, which surged to the top spot with superior coding, planning, and natural prose benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid feature rollouts like computer-use tools and persistent memory. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released mid-February, trails at 23.5% despite leading reasoning tests like GPQA at 94.3%, reflecting its multimodal strengths but weaker developer ecosystem traction. OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations lag further at 5.5% due to stagnant recent demos, while dark horses like xAI remain speculative; upcoming model previews or benchmark resets before quarter-end could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions