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哪家公司在6月底有最好的人工智能模型?

Market icon

哪家公司在6月底有最好的人工智能模型?

Anthropic 66.9%

Google 24%

OpenAI 6%

xAI 1.8%

Polymarket

$2,884,447 交易量

Anthropic 66.9%

Google 24%

OpenAI 6%

xAI 1.8%

Polymarket

$2,884,447 交易量

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Anthropic

$567,857 交易量

67%

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Google

$314,820 交易量

24%

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OpenAI

$102,153 交易量

6%

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xAI

$843,690 交易量

2%

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DeepSeek

$208,579 交易量

1%

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阿里巴巴

$110,905 交易量

<1%

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Z.ai

$170,425 交易量

<1%

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Mistral

$290,119 交易量

<1%

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Moonshot

$123,665 交易量

<1%

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美團

$152,233 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 67.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely resolved via LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—driven by Claude Opus 4.6's February launch, which surged to the top spot with superior coding, planning, and natural prose benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid feature rollouts like computer-use tools and persistent memory. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released mid-February, trails at 23.5% despite leading reasoning tests like GPQA at 94.3%, reflecting its multimodal strengths but weaker developer ecosystem traction. OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations lag further at 5.5% due to stagnant recent demos, while dark horses like xAI remain speculative; upcoming model previews or benchmark resets before quarter-end could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model race.

Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 67.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely resolved via LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—driven by Claude Opus 4.6's February launch, which surged to the top spot with superior coding, planning, and natural prose benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid feature rollouts like computer-use tools and persistent memory. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released mid-February, trails at 23.5% despite leading reasoning tests like GPQA at 94.3%, reflecting its multimodal strengths but weaker developer ecosystem traction. OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations lag further at 5.5% due to stagnant recent demos, while dark horses like xAI remain speculative; upcoming model previews or benchmark resets before quarter-end could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model race.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 67.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely resolved via LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—driven by Claude Opus 4.6's February launch, which surged to the top spot with superior coding, planning, and natural prose benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid feature rollouts like computer-use tools and persistent memory. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released mid-February, trails at 23.5% despite leading reasoning tests like GPQA at 94.3%, reflecting its multimodal strengths but weaker developer ecosystem traction. OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations lag further at 5.5% due to stagnant recent demos, while dark horses like xAI remain speculative; upcoming model previews or benchmark resets before quarter-end could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model race.

Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 67.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely resolved via LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—driven by Claude Opus 4.6's February launch, which surged to the top spot with superior coding, planning, and natural prose benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid feature rollouts like computer-use tools and persistent memory. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released mid-February, trails at 23.5% despite leading reasoning tests like GPQA at 94.3%, reflecting its multimodal strengths but weaker developer ecosystem traction. OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations lag further at 5.5% due to stagnant recent demos, while dark horses like xAI remain speculative; upcoming model previews or benchmark resets before quarter-end could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model race.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"哪家公司在6月底有最好的人工智能模型?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 67%, followed by "Google" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "哪家公司在6月底有最好的人工智能模型?" has generated $2.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "哪家公司在6月底有最好的人工智能模型?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "哪家公司在6月底有最好的人工智能模型?" is "Anthropic" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "哪家公司在6月底有最好的人工智能模型?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.