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科技·AI

到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？

Market icon
科技·AI

到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？

$1,165,394 交易量

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,165,394 交易量

Polymarket
Market icon

OpenAI

$337,577 交易量

29%

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xAI

$537,589 交易量

16%

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DeepSeek

$23,023 交易量

8%

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阿里巴巴

$4,633 交易量

8%

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Meta

$0 交易量

6%

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Z.ai

$0 交易量

5%

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百度

$1,906 交易量

4%

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Mistral

$0 交易量

4%

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Nvidia

$0 交易量

3%

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美團

$2,695 交易量

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI at 29% and xAI at 16% to claim the #1 AI model spot—likely per LMSYS Chatbot Arena—by June 30, reflecting expectations of leapfrogging amid a volatile March 2026 release frenzy with 12 frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 currently leads leaderboards with superior reasoning, edging Google's multimodal Gemini 3.1 Pro, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trail at #3; Meta delayed its Avocado model over performance issues. Key catalysts include anticipated GPT-5 upgrades, Grok-5 previews, Claude 5, and Gemini 4 before Q2 end, with Chinese challengers like DeepSeek (8%) gaining on efficiency benchmarks. Resolution hinges on blind user-voted Elo shifts in this skin-in-the-game race.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI at 29% and xAI at 16% to claim the #1 AI model spot—likely per LMSYS Chatbot Arena—by June 30, reflecting expectations of leapfrogging amid a volatile March 2026 release frenzy with 12 frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 currently leads leaderboards with superior reasoning, edging Google's multimodal Gemini 3.1 Pro, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trail at #3; Meta delayed its Avocado model over performance issues. Key catalysts include anticipated GPT-5 upgrades, Grok-5 previews, Claude 5, and Gemini 4 before Q2 end, with Chinese challengers like DeepSeek (8%) gaining on efficiency benchmarks. Resolution hinges on blind user-voted Elo shifts in this skin-in-the-game race.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI at 29% and xAI at 16% to claim the #1 AI model spot—likely per LMSYS Chatbot Arena—by June 30, reflecting expectations of leapfrogging amid a volatile March 2026 release frenzy with 12 frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 currently leads leaderboards with superior reasoning, edging Google's multimodal Gemini 3.1 Pro, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trail at #3; Meta delayed its Avocado model over performance issues. Key catalysts include anticipated GPT-5 upgrades, Grok-5 previews, Claude 5, and Gemini 4 before Q2 end, with Chinese challengers like DeepSeek (8%) gaining on efficiency benchmarks. Resolution hinges on blind user-voted Elo shifts in this skin-in-the-game race.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI at 29% and xAI at 16% to claim the #1 AI model spot—likely per LMSYS Chatbot Arena—by June 30, reflecting expectations of leapfrogging amid a volatile March 2026 release frenzy with 12 frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 currently leads leaderboards with superior reasoning, edging Google's multimodal Gemini 3.1 Pro, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trail at #3; Meta delayed its Avocado model over performance issues. Key catalysts include anticipated GPT-5 upgrades, Grok-5 previews, Claude 5, and Gemini 4 before Q2 end, with Chinese challengers like DeepSeek (8%) gaining on efficiency benchmarks. Resolution hinges on blind user-voted Elo shifts in this skin-in-the-game race.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 100%, followed by "OpenAI" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？" is "Anthropic" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "OpenAI" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "到6月30日，哪些公司將擁有首屈一指的人工智能模型？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.