Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republicans below 190 House seats at 30.5% and 190-194 at 24.5%, reflecting historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid President Trump's dipping approval ratings—now in the low 40s per recent polls—tied to the Iran conflict and surging gas prices. A record 36 Republican incumbents, versus 21 Democrats, have announced they won't seek re-election, opening competitive districts like CA-48 and TX-23, where Cook Political ratings shifted toward Democrats last week. Generic congressional ballot polls show Democrats leading by 4-5 points on average, per NYT tracking, fueling expectations of GOP net losses from their current 217 seats. The race stays tight due to ongoing mid-decade redistricting battles and early primaries; economic recovery or scandal-free campaigning could boost Republicans toward 200+, while further retirements or weak turnout might push under 190.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於193 seats
低於190 31%
190-194 25%
195-199 9%
200-204 9%
$197,549 交易量
$197,549 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
低於190
31%
190-194
25%
195-199
9%
200-204
9%
205-209
6%
210-214
6%
215-219
5%
220-224
2%
225-229
1%
230+
1%
低於190 31%
190-194 25%
195-199 9%
200-204 9%
$197,549 交易量
$197,549 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
低於190
$8,124 交易量
31%
190-194
$5,138 交易量
25%
195-199
$25,571 交易量
9%
200-204
$19,658 交易量
9%
205-209
$31,431 交易量
6%
210-214
$10,090 交易量
6%
215-219
$4,838 交易量
5%
220-224
$50,092 交易量
2%
225-229
$18,679 交易量
1%
230+
$23,928 交易量
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republicans below 190 House seats at 30.5% and 190-194 at 24.5%, reflecting historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid President Trump's dipping approval ratings—now in the low 40s per recent polls—tied to the Iran conflict and surging gas prices. A record 36 Republican incumbents, versus 21 Democrats, have announced they won't seek re-election, opening competitive districts like CA-48 and TX-23, where Cook Political ratings shifted toward Democrats last week. Generic congressional ballot polls show Democrats leading by 4-5 points on average, per NYT tracking, fueling expectations of GOP net losses from their current 217 seats. The race stays tight due to ongoing mid-decade redistricting battles and early primaries; economic recovery or scandal-free campaigning could boost Republicans toward 200+, while further retirements or weak turnout might push under 190.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$197,549結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republicans below 190 House seats at 30.5% and 190-194 at 24.5%, reflecting historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid President Trump's dipping approval ratings—now in the low 40s per recent polls—tied to the Iran conflict and surging gas prices. A record 36 Republican incumbents, versus 21 Democrats, have announced they won't seek re-election, opening competitive districts like CA-48 and TX-23, where Cook Political ratings shifted toward Democrats last week. Generic congressional ballot polls show Democrats leading by 4-5 points on average, per NYT tracking, fueling expectations of GOP net losses from their current 217 seats. The race stays tight due to ongoing mid-decade redistricting battles and early primaries; economic recovery or scandal-free campaigning could boost Republicans toward 200+, while further retirements or weak turnout might push under 190.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$197,549結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republicans below 190 House seats at 30.5% and 190-194 at 24.5%, reflecting historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid President Trump's dipping approval ratings—now in the low 40s per recent polls—tied to the Iran conflict and surging gas prices. A record 36 Republican incumbents, versus 21 Democrats, have announced they won't seek re-election, opening competitive districts like CA-48 and TX-23, where Cook Political ratings shifted toward Democrats last week. Generic congressional ballot polls show Democrats leading by 4-5 points on average, per NYT tracking, fueling expectations of GOP net losses from their current 217 seats. The race stays tight due to ongoing mid-decade redistricting battles and early primaries; economic recovery or scandal-free campaigning could boost Republicans toward 200+, while further retirements or weak turnout might push under 190.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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