2026年下任英國首相？

Name: 2026年下任英國首相？
Start: 2026-02-05T22:57:27.385Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

2026年下任英國首相？ — 討論

MaxShorter · 2026-02-05T22:57:27.385Z

關於2026年下任英國首相？的討論。交易者在 Polymarket 上分享見解和預測。

政治·英格蘭

2026年下任英國首相？

2026年沒有下一任首相 37%

安吉拉·雷納 24%

艾德·米利班德 9.8%

奈傑爾·法拉奇 8.5%

$3,693,998 交易量

Dec 31, 2026

2026年沒有下一任首相

$122,291 交易量

37%

安吉拉·雷納

$254,830 交易量

24%

艾德·米利班德

$173,981 交易量

10%

奈傑爾·法拉奇

$553,960 交易量

韋斯·斯崔廷

$60,993 交易量

葉薇特·庫珀

$153,879 交易量

魯珀特·洛伊

$567,155 交易量

安迪·伯納姆

$290,016 交易量

夏巴娜·馬哈茂德

$198,264 交易量

艾爾·卡恩斯

$102,504 交易量

露西·鮑威爾

$0 交易量

大衛·拉米

$96,613 交易量

雷切爾·李夫斯

$352,948 交易量

<1%

凱米·巴德諾赫

$109,908 交易量

<1%

達倫·瓊斯

$122,955 交易量

<1%

鮑里斯·約翰遜

$116,077 交易量

<1%

艾德·戴維

$86,105 交易量

<1%

布莉姬特·菲利普森

$57,729 交易量

<1%

羅伯特·詹里克

$139,948 交易量

<1%

詹姆斯·克萊弗利

$134,555 交易量

<1%

2026年沒有下一任首相 37%

安吉拉·雷納 24%

艾德·米利班德 9.8%

奈傑爾·法拉奇 8.5%

$3,693,998 交易量

Dec 31, 2026

2026年沒有下一任首相

$122,291 交易量

37%

安吉拉·雷納

$254,830 交易量

24%

艾德·米利班德

$173,981 交易量

10%

奈傑爾·法拉奇

$553,960 交易量

韋斯·斯崔廷

$60,993 交易量

葉薇特·庫珀

$153,879 交易量

魯珀特·洛伊

$567,155 交易量

安迪·伯納姆

$290,016 交易量

夏巴娜·馬哈茂德

$198,264 交易量

艾爾·卡恩斯

$102,504 交易量

露西·鮑威爾

$0 交易量

大衛·拉米

$96,613 交易量

雷切爾·李夫斯

$352,948 交易量

<1%

凱米·巴德諾赫

$109,908 交易量

<1%

達倫·瓊斯

$122,955 交易量

<1%

鮑里斯·約翰遜

$116,077 交易量

<1%

艾德·戴維

$86,105 交易量

<1%

布莉姬特·菲利普森

$57,729 交易量

<1%

羅伯特·詹里克

$139,948 交易量

<1%

詹姆斯·克萊弗利

$134,555 交易量

<1%

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty over Keir Starmer's leadership stability, pricing "No Next PM in 2026" at 36.5% amid Labour's internal tensions, with former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner leading challengers at 23.5% following her March 17 speech warning the party is "running out of time" to deliver reforms and decrying immigration plans as "un-British." This reignited speculation after February's aborted leadership crisis, triggered by Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar's resignation call, top aide departures, and controversies over appointments like Peter Mandelson. Starmer pledged to stay, surviving the immediate threat, while rumors swirl of an imminent left-wing cabinet reshuffle potentially reinstating Rayner. Ed Miliband's 9.9% and Nigel Farage's 8.6% nod to left-wing dissent and Reform UK's rising opposition pressure, though no snap election or no-confidence vote looms before 2029.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 29, 2026, 3:18 AM UTC

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年下任英國首相？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年沒有下一任首相" at 37%, followed by "安吉拉·雷納" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年下任英國首相？" has generated $3.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年下任英國首相？," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年下任英國首相？" is "2026年沒有下一任首相" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "安吉拉·雷納" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年下任英國首相？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "2026年下任英國首相？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $3.7 million traded on “2026年下任英國首相？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "2026年下任英國首相？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 37¢ for "2026年沒有下一任首相" in the "2026年下任英國首相？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 37% chance that "2026年沒有下一任首相" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 37¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 63¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "2026年下任英國首相？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "2026年下任英國首相？" market has an active community of 42 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "2026年下任英國首相？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

2026年下任英國首相？

2026年下任英國首相？

規則

盤口背景

規則

盤口背景

評論 (42)

頂級持倉者

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動態

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "2026年下任英國首相？" prediction market?

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How do I trade on "2026年下任英國首相？"?

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What does a price of 37¢ for "2026年沒有下一任首相" mean?

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