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政治·特朗普

凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？

Market icon
政治·特朗普

凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？

$409,036 交易量

May 15, 2026
Polymarket

$409,036 交易量

Polymarket

5月1日

$277,586 交易量

11%

5月15日

$131,450 交易量

50%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump formally nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair on March 4, transmitting the nomination to the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15. Progress has stalled, with Sen. Thom Tillis blocking advancement amid a DOJ investigation into Powell and escalating Iran war tensions, as reported March 27. No confirmation hearing is scheduled in the Senate Banking Committee, where GOP opposition has emerged despite Republican control. Traders assess risks from procedural holds, potential floor vote hurdles needing simple majority, and geopolitical pressures that could delay or derail confirmation before the deadline, reflecting uncertainty in the appointment process.

President Trump formally nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair on March 4, transmitting the nomination to the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15. Progress has stalled, with Sen. Thom Tillis blocking advancement amid a DOJ investigation into Powell and escalating Iran war tensions, as reported March 27. No confirmation hearing is scheduled in the Senate Banking Committee, where GOP opposition has emerged despite Republican control. Traders assess risks from procedural holds, potential floor vote hurdles needing simple majority, and geopolitical pressures that could delay or derail confirmation before the deadline, reflecting uncertainty in the appointment process.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump formally nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair on March 4, transmitting the nomination to the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15. Progress has stalled, with Sen. Thom Tillis blocking advancement amid a DOJ investigation into Powell and escalating Iran war tensions, as reported March 27. No confirmation hearing is scheduled in the Senate Banking Committee, where GOP opposition has emerged despite Republican control. Traders assess risks from procedural holds, potential floor vote hurdles needing simple majority, and geopolitical pressures that could delay or derail confirmation before the deadline, reflecting uncertainty in the appointment process.

President Trump formally nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair on March 4, transmitting the nomination to the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15. Progress has stalled, with Sen. Thom Tillis blocking advancement amid a DOJ investigation into Powell and escalating Iran war tensions, as reported March 27. No confirmation hearing is scheduled in the Senate Banking Committee, where GOP opposition has emerged despite Republican control. Traders assess risks from procedural holds, potential floor vote hurdles needing simple majority, and geopolitical pressures that could delay or derail confirmation before the deadline, reflecting uncertainty in the appointment process.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5月15日" at 50%, followed by "5月1日" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？" has generated $409K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？" is "5月15日" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5月1日" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "凱文·沃什被……確認擔任聯儲局主席？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.