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選舉·世界選舉

2028年民主黨總統提名人

Market icon
選舉·世界選舉

2028年民主黨總統提名人

加文·紐森 24.3%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 8.3%

喬恩·奧索夫 5.7%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 4.3%

Polymarket

$930,043,663 交易量

加文·紐森 24.3%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 8.3%

喬恩·奧索夫 5.7%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 4.3%

Polymarket

$930,043,663 交易量

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加文·紐森

$16,374,243 交易量

24%

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亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯

$6,051,069 交易量

8%

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喬恩·奧索夫

$5,745,407 交易量

6%

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卡馬拉·哈里斯

$8,590,522 交易量

4%

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喬什·夏皮羅

$5,795,729 交易量

4%

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皮特·布塔朱吉

$9,396,434 交易量

4%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,551,207 交易量

2%

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詹姆斯·塔拉里科

$3,404,881 交易量

2%

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喬恩·斯圖爾特

$9,674,245 交易量

2%

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馬克·凱利

$10,815,268 交易量

2%

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安迪·貝希爾

$6,003,746 交易量

2%

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魯本·加列戈

$3,505,938 交易量

2%

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羅·卡納

$4,135,335 交易量

2%

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韋斯·摩爾

$13,416,996 交易量

2%

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格雷琴·惠特默

$7,100,115 交易量

1%

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米歇爾·奧巴馬

$21,318,366 交易量

1%

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歐普拉·溫芙蕾

$42,934,760 交易量

1%

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拉姆·伊曼紐爾

$11,020,209 交易量

1%

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科里·布克

$20,792,808 交易量

1%

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馬克·庫班

$17,517,359 交易量

1%

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史蒂芬·A·史密斯

$13,627,351 交易量

1%

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巨石強森

$8,610,640 交易量

1%

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克里斯·墨菲

$11,331,866 交易量

1%

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約翰·費特曼

$16,738,978 交易量

1%

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勒布朗·詹姆斯

$38,394,574 交易量

1%

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吉娜·雷蒙多

$27,171,163 交易量

1%

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佐赫蘭·曼達尼

$32,894,799 交易量

1%

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羅伊·庫珀

$24,536,206 交易量

1%

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莉茲·切尼

$31,982,294 交易量

1%

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MrBeast

$35,090,329 交易量

1%

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喬治·克魯尼

$36,969,624 交易量

1%

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賈里德·波利斯

$19,146,526 交易量

1%

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切爾西·克林頓

$44,288,342 交易量

1%

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希拉蕊·柯林頓

$37,265,060 交易量

1%

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巴拉克·歐巴馬

$25,074,847 交易量

1%

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蒂姆·瓦爾茲

$36,368,240 交易量

1%

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安德魯·楊

$41,867,895 交易量

1%

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金·卡戴珊

$32,707,222 交易量

1%

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菲爾·墨菲

$33,316,184 交易量

1%

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亨特·拜登

$31,296,424 交易量

1%

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賈思敏·克羅克特

$22,263,535 交易量

1%

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拉斐爾·沃諾克

$24,213,546 交易量

1%

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伯尼·桑德斯

$38,489,099 交易量

1%

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貝托·奧羅克

$31,265,295 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by a March 12 UC Berkeley-POLITICO poll showing him leading Kamala Harris 28%-14% among California Democrats—his home state's large delegate haul—and his high-profile anti-Trump posture, including March 15 SXSW remarks tying a potential bid to 2026 midterm gains. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% amid buzz from her February Munich appearances enhancing her progressive global profile, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects viral traction from his anti-Trump Senate speech. In this fragmented post-2024 field, governors like Newsom and Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro (4%) differentiate via executive records and fundraising prowess, versus senators' battleground appeal; consolidation could hinge on midterm results, early-state polling, and party endorsements ahead of primaries.

California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by a March 12 UC Berkeley-POLITICO poll showing him leading Kamala Harris 28%-14% among California Democrats—his home state's large delegate haul—and his high-profile anti-Trump posture, including March 15 SXSW remarks tying a potential bid to 2026 midterm gains. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% amid buzz from her February Munich appearances enhancing her progressive global profile, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects viral traction from his anti-Trump Senate speech. In this fragmented post-2024 field, governors like Newsom and Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro (4%) differentiate via executive records and fundraising prowess, versus senators' battleground appeal; consolidation could hinge on midterm results, early-state polling, and party endorsements ahead of primaries.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by a March 12 UC Berkeley-POLITICO poll showing him leading Kamala Harris 28%-14% among California Democrats—his home state's large delegate haul—and his high-profile anti-Trump posture, including March 15 SXSW remarks tying a potential bid to 2026 midterm gains. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% amid buzz from her February Munich appearances enhancing her progressive global profile, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects viral traction from his anti-Trump Senate speech. In this fragmented post-2024 field, governors like Newsom and Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro (4%) differentiate via executive records and fundraising prowess, versus senators' battleground appeal; consolidation could hinge on midterm results, early-state polling, and party endorsements ahead of primaries.

California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by a March 12 UC Berkeley-POLITICO poll showing him leading Kamala Harris 28%-14% among California Democrats—his home state's large delegate haul—and his high-profile anti-Trump posture, including March 15 SXSW remarks tying a potential bid to 2026 midterm gains. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% amid buzz from her February Munich appearances enhancing her progressive global profile, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects viral traction from his anti-Trump Senate speech. In this fragmented post-2024 field, governors like Newsom and Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro (4%) differentiate via executive records and fundraising prowess, versus senators' battleground appeal; consolidation could hinge on midterm results, early-state polling, and party endorsements ahead of primaries.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2028年民主黨總統提名人" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "加文·紐森" at 24%, followed by "亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2028年民主黨總統提名人" has generated $930 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2028年民主黨總統提名人," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2028年民主黨總統提名人" is "加文·紐森" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2028年民主黨總統提名人" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.