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選舉·世界選舉

2028年民主黨總統提名人

Market icon
選舉·世界選舉

2028年民主黨總統提名人

加文·紐森 24.3%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 8.3%

喬恩·奧索夫 5.8%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 4.3%

Polymarket

$931,832,103 交易量

加文·紐森 24.3%

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯 8.3%

喬恩·奧索夫 5.8%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 4.3%

Polymarket

$931,832,103 交易量

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加文·紐森

$16,409,152 交易量

24%

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亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯

$6,068,665 交易量

8%

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喬恩·奧索夫

$5,790,873 交易量

6%

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卡馬拉·哈里斯

$8,603,502 交易量

4%

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喬什·夏皮羅

$5,804,338 交易量

4%

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皮特·布塔朱吉

$9,425,792 交易量

4%

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詹姆斯·塔拉里科

$3,460,277 交易量

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,595,600 交易量

2%

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喬恩·斯圖爾特

$9,689,426 交易量

2%

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安迪·貝希爾

$6,013,573 交易量

2%

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馬克·凱利

$10,869,591 交易量

2%

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魯本·加列戈

$3,510,822 交易量

2%

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韋斯·摩爾

$13,429,282 交易量

2%

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羅·卡納

$4,183,643 交易量

1%

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格雷琴·惠特默

$7,112,804 交易量

1%

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米歇爾·奧巴馬

$21,330,182 交易量

1%

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歐普拉·溫芙蕾

$43,059,238 交易量

1%

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拉姆·伊曼紐爾

$11,065,941 交易量

1%

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科里·布克

$20,964,167 交易量

1%

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馬克·庫班

$17,573,609 交易量

1%

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史蒂芬·A·史密斯

$13,678,276 交易量

1%

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巨石強森

$8,620,375 交易量

1%

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克里斯·墨菲

$11,343,617 交易量

1%

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約翰·費特曼

$16,793,658 交易量

1%

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勒布朗·詹姆斯

$38,438,297 交易量

1%

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吉娜·雷蒙多

$27,201,133 交易量

1%

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喬治·克魯尼

$37,092,936 交易量

1%

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莉茲·切尼

$31,995,332 交易量

1%

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佐赫蘭·曼達尼

$32,931,235 交易量

1%

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切爾西·克林頓

$44,305,810 交易量

1%

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羅伊·庫珀

$24,601,986 交易量

1%

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金·卡戴珊

$32,742,111 交易量

1%

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賈里德·波利斯

$19,193,062 交易量

1%

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MrBeast

$35,113,198 交易量

1%

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希拉蕊·柯林頓

$37,306,509 交易量

1%

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巴拉克·歐巴馬

$25,109,279 交易量

1%

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蒂姆·瓦爾茲

$36,391,301 交易量

1%

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安德魯·楊

$41,916,043 交易量

1%

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菲爾·墨菲

$33,333,477 交易量

1%

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亨特·拜登

$31,324,376 交易量

1%

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賈思敏·克羅克特

$22,293,793 交易量

1%

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拉斐爾·沃諾克

$24,265,008 交易量

1%

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伯尼·桑德斯

$38,560,407 交易量

1%

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貝托·奧羅克

$31,324,731 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions California Governor Gavin Newsom as the clear 2028 Democratic presidential nominee frontrunner at 24.3% implied probability, propelled by March polls from Politico and the LA Times/UC Berkeley showing him trouncing Kamala Harris and others in the early California primary—his home-state launchpad—with strong fundraising exceeding $25 million and a national book tour boosting visibility as a Trump critic. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.3% on progressive appeal to young voters amid centrist pushback against left-wing firebrands, while Sen. Jon Ossoff's 5.8% reflects moderate swing-state credentials in Georgia. Markets diverge from national polling averages favoring Harris, emphasizing trader skepticism of 2024 losers; 2026 midterms, early-state polls, and fundraising could consolidate support in this wide-open field lacking an incumbent.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions California Governor Gavin Newsom as the clear 2028 Democratic presidential nominee frontrunner at 24.3% implied probability, propelled by March polls from Politico and the LA Times/UC Berkeley showing him trouncing Kamala Harris and others in the early California primary—his home-state launchpad—with strong fundraising exceeding $25 million and a national book tour boosting visibility as a Trump critic. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.3% on progressive appeal to young voters amid centrist pushback against left-wing firebrands, while Sen. Jon Ossoff's 5.8% reflects moderate swing-state credentials in Georgia. Markets diverge from national polling averages favoring Harris, emphasizing trader skepticism of 2024 losers; 2026 midterms, early-state polls, and fundraising could consolidate support in this wide-open field lacking an incumbent.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions California Governor Gavin Newsom as the clear 2028 Democratic presidential nominee frontrunner at 24.3% implied probability, propelled by March polls from Politico and the LA Times/UC Berkeley showing him trouncing Kamala Harris and others in the early California primary—his home-state launchpad—with strong fundraising exceeding $25 million and a national book tour boosting visibility as a Trump critic. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.3% on progressive appeal to young voters amid centrist pushback against left-wing firebrands, while Sen. Jon Ossoff's 5.8% reflects moderate swing-state credentials in Georgia. Markets diverge from national polling averages favoring Harris, emphasizing trader skepticism of 2024 losers; 2026 midterms, early-state polls, and fundraising could consolidate support in this wide-open field lacking an incumbent.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions California Governor Gavin Newsom as the clear 2028 Democratic presidential nominee frontrunner at 24.3% implied probability, propelled by March polls from Politico and the LA Times/UC Berkeley showing him trouncing Kamala Harris and others in the early California primary—his home-state launchpad—with strong fundraising exceeding $25 million and a national book tour boosting visibility as a Trump critic. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.3% on progressive appeal to young voters amid centrist pushback against left-wing firebrands, while Sen. Jon Ossoff's 5.8% reflects moderate swing-state credentials in Georgia. Markets diverge from national polling averages favoring Harris, emphasizing trader skepticism of 2024 losers; 2026 midterms, early-state polls, and fundraising could consolidate support in this wide-open field lacking an incumbent.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2028年民主黨總統提名人" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "加文·紐森" at 24%, followed by "亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2028年民主黨總統提名人" has generated $931.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2028年民主黨總統提名人," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2028年民主黨總統提名人" is "加文·紐森" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2028年民主黨總統提名人" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.