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Технологии·Илон Маск

Tesla запускает неконтролируемое беспилотное вождение (FSD)...?

Market icon
Технологии·Илон Маск

Tesla запускает неконтролируемое беспилотное вождение (FSD)...?

$14,992,479 Объем

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$14,992,479 Объем

Polymarket

30 июня

$242,902 Объем

Нет

31 октября

$431,981 Объем

Нет

31 декабря

$1,086,303 Объем

Нет

31 марта 2026 года

$1,053,951 Объем

Да

30 июня 2026 года

$12,177,341 Объем

Да

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by December 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention.

2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either:
- The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or
- The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene.

3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles.

Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service.

This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$14,992,479
Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2025
Открытие рынка
Jul 21, 2025, 10:42 AM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: Да

Оспаривается

Предложенный исход: Да

Оспаривается

Окончательный исход: Да

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by December 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention. 2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either: - The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or - The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene. 3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service. This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Tesla запускает неконтролируемое беспилотное вождение (FSD)...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 5 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «31 марта 2026 года» с 100%, за ним следует «30 июня 2026 года» с 100%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 100¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Tesla запускает неконтролируемое беспилотное вождение (FSD)...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $15 million с момента запуска рынка May 29, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

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Текущий фаворит для «Tesla запускает неконтролируемое беспилотное вождение (FSD)...?» — «31 марта 2026 года» с 100%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Следующий ближайший исход — «30 июня 2026 года» с 100%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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