Trader consensus on Polymarket prices South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted) in a closely contested range, with 0.5–0.9% leading at 34.5% implied probability, neck-and-neck with 1.5–1.9% and 2.0–2.4% outcomes at 25% each amid uncertainty over final momentum. Robust high-frequency indicators—March manufacturing PMI at a 17-month high of 52.6, strong February industrial production exceeding estimates, and semiconductor export surges—signal firm Q1 expansion driven by external demand, which accounts for nearly 40% of GDP. However, Middle East tensions, including Iran risks flagged by ING yesterday, cap upside via potential supply disruptions, while subdued construction and private consumption temper higher bins. Key differentiator: March exports data and Bank of Korea's advance estimate on April 23 could swing probabilities toward or away from sub-1% growth.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРост ВВП Южной Кореи в 1 квартале 2026 года?
Рост ВВП Южной Кореи в 1 квартале 2026 года?
2,0–2,4% 31%
2,5%+ 24%
1,0–1,4% 11.0%
1,5–1,9% 7%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 апр. 2026 г.
<0%
15%
0,0–0,4%
3%
0,5–0,9%
35%
1,0–1,4%
11%
1,5–1,9%
25%
2,0–2,4%
25%
2,5%+
14%
2,0–2,4% 31%
2,5%+ 24%
1,0–1,4% 11.0%
1,5–1,9% 7%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 апр. 2026 г.
<0%
$0 Объем
15%
0,0–0,4%
$0 Объем
3%
0,5–0,9%
$0 Объем
35%
1,0–1,4%
$0 Объем
11%
1,5–1,9%
$338 Объем
25%
2,0–2,4%
$0 Объем
25%
2,5%+
$6,208 Объем
14%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader consensus on Polymarket prices South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted) in a closely contested range, with 0.5–0.9% leading at 34.5% implied probability, neck-and-neck with 1.5–1.9% and 2.0–2.4% outcomes at 25% each amid uncertainty over final momentum. Robust high-frequency indicators—March manufacturing PMI at a 17-month high of 52.6, strong February industrial production exceeding estimates, and semiconductor export surges—signal firm Q1 expansion driven by external demand, which accounts for nearly 40% of GDP. However, Middle East tensions, including Iran risks flagged by ING yesterday, cap upside via potential supply disruptions, while subdued construction and private consumption temper higher bins. Key differentiator: March exports data and Bank of Korea's advance estimate on April 23 could swing probabilities toward or away from sub-1% growth.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Объем
$6,546Дата окончания
23 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader consensus on Polymarket prices South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted) in a closely contested range, with 0.5–0.9% leading at 34.5% implied probability, neck-and-neck with 1.5–1.9% and 2.0–2.4% outcomes at 25% each amid uncertainty over final momentum. Robust high-frequency indicators—March manufacturing PMI at a 17-month high of 52.6, strong February industrial production exceeding estimates, and semiconductor export surges—signal firm Q1 expansion driven by external demand, which accounts for nearly 40% of GDP. However, Middle East tensions, including Iran risks flagged by ING yesterday, cap upside via potential supply disruptions, while subdued construction and private consumption temper higher bins. Key differentiator: March exports data and Bank of Korea's advance estimate on April 23 could swing probabilities toward or away from sub-1% growth.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Объем
$6,546Дата окончания
23 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted) in a closely contested range, with 0.5–0.9% leading at 34.5% implied probability, neck-and-neck with 1.5–1.9% and 2.0–2.4% outcomes at 25% each amid uncertainty over final momentum. Robust high-frequency indicators—March manufacturing PMI at a 17-month high of 52.6, strong February industrial production exceeding estimates, and semiconductor export surges—signal firm Q1 expansion driven by external demand, which accounts for nearly 40% of GDP. However, Middle East tensions, including Iran risks flagged by ING yesterday, cap upside via potential supply disruptions, while subdued construction and private consumption temper higher bins. Key differentiator: March exports data and Bank of Korea's advance estimate on April 23 could swing probabilities toward or away from sub-1% growth.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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