The open-seat race in New York's 21st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with an R+10 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus toward a 75% implied probability for the Republican Party nominee, reflecting historical double-digit GOP victories and reliable performance in this rural North Country battleground. Incumbent Rep. Elise Stefanik's December 2025 retirement after dropping her gubernatorial bid opened the contest, but recent Republican momentum—including the New York GOP's March 19 endorsement of Assemblyman Robert Smullen despite self-funded challenger Anthony Constantino's fundraising lead and February primary poll dominance—bolsters party unity ahead of the June 23 closed primaries. Democrats face a contested primary among candidates like Dylan Hewitt and Blake Gendebien, potentially hindering general election consolidation on November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-21
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-21
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
75%
Демократическая партия
22%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
$6,066 Объем
75%
Демократическая партия
$3,720 Объем
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat race in New York's 21st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with an R+10 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus toward a 75% implied probability for the Republican Party nominee, reflecting historical double-digit GOP victories and reliable performance in this rural North Country battleground. Incumbent Rep. Elise Stefanik's December 2025 retirement after dropping her gubernatorial bid opened the contest, but recent Republican momentum—including the New York GOP's March 19 endorsement of Assemblyman Robert Smullen despite self-funded challenger Anthony Constantino's fundraising lead and February primary poll dominance—bolsters party unity ahead of the June 23 closed primaries. Democrats face a contested primary among candidates like Dylan Hewitt and Blake Gendebien, potentially hindering general election consolidation on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$9,787Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat race in New York's 21st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with an R+10 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus toward a 75% implied probability for the Republican Party nominee, reflecting historical double-digit GOP victories and reliable performance in this rural North Country battleground. Incumbent Rep. Elise Stefanik's December 2025 retirement after dropping her gubernatorial bid opened the contest, but recent Republican momentum—including the New York GOP's March 19 endorsement of Assemblyman Robert Smullen despite self-funded challenger Anthony Constantino's fundraising lead and February primary poll dominance—bolsters party unity ahead of the June 23 closed primaries. Democrats face a contested primary among candidates like Dylan Hewitt and Blake Gendebien, potentially hindering general election consolidation on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$9,787Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open-seat race in New York's 21st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with an R+10 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus toward a 75% implied probability for the Republican Party nominee, reflecting historical double-digit GOP victories and reliable performance in this rural North Country battleground. Incumbent Rep. Elise Stefanik's December 2025 retirement after dropping her gubernatorial bid opened the contest, but recent Republican momentum—including the New York GOP's March 19 endorsement of Assemblyman Robert Smullen despite self-funded challenger Anthony Constantino's fundraising lead and February primary poll dominance—bolsters party unity ahead of the June 23 closed primaries. Democrats face a contested primary among candidates like Dylan Hewitt and Blake Gendebien, potentially hindering general election consolidation on November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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