Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a commanding lead in polls for the NY-03 special election on February 13, driving trader consensus to 76.5% for the Democratic Party amid Republican Mazi Pilip's 23.5% implied probability. Recent Siena and Emerson surveys show Suozzi ahead by 10–14 points, bolstered by his fundraising edge—over $3 million raised versus Pilip's under $1 million—and strong debate performances highlighting local issues like property taxes and the migrant crisis. The district, which Santos narrowly won in 2022 before his expulsion, aligns with Biden's +8% 2020 margin, favoring Democrats in low-turnout specials. GOP attacks on sanctuary policies have narrowed the gap slightly, but Suozzi's experience as former congressman sustains the advantage ahead of election night vote counts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоNY-03 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NY-03 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Демократическая партия
77%
Республиканская партия
31%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
77%
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
31%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a commanding lead in polls for the NY-03 special election on February 13, driving trader consensus to 76.5% for the Democratic Party amid Republican Mazi Pilip's 23.5% implied probability. Recent Siena and Emerson surveys show Suozzi ahead by 10–14 points, bolstered by his fundraising edge—over $3 million raised versus Pilip's under $1 million—and strong debate performances highlighting local issues like property taxes and the migrant crisis. The district, which Santos narrowly won in 2022 before his expulsion, aligns with Biden's +8% 2020 margin, favoring Democrats in low-turnout specials. GOP attacks on sanctuary policies have narrowed the gap slightly, but Suozzi's experience as former congressman sustains the advantage ahead of election night vote counts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a commanding lead in polls for the NY-03 special election on February 13, driving trader consensus to 76.5% for the Democratic Party amid Republican Mazi Pilip's 23.5% implied probability. Recent Siena and Emerson surveys show Suozzi ahead by 10–14 points, bolstered by his fundraising edge—over $3 million raised versus Pilip's under $1 million—and strong debate performances highlighting local issues like property taxes and the migrant crisis. The district, which Santos narrowly won in 2022 before his expulsion, aligns with Biden's +8% 2020 margin, favoring Democrats in low-turnout specials. GOP attacks on sanctuary policies have narrowed the gap slightly, but Suozzi's experience as former congressman sustains the advantage ahead of election night vote counts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a commanding lead in polls for the NY-03 special election on February 13, driving trader consensus to 76.5% for the Democratic Party amid Republican Mazi Pilip's 23.5% implied probability. Recent Siena and Emerson surveys show Suozzi ahead by 10–14 points, bolstered by his fundraising edge—over $3 million raised versus Pilip's under $1 million—and strong debate performances highlighting local issues like property taxes and the migrant crisis. The district, which Santos narrowly won in 2022 before his expulsion, aligns with Biden's +8% 2020 margin, favoring Democrats in low-turnout specials. GOP attacks on sanctuary policies have narrowed the gap slightly, but Suozzi's experience as former congressman sustains the advantage ahead of election night vote counts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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